Betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a highly niche weather prediction market. While weather derivatives exist in institutional finance, it remains a novelty topic that few people casually think about.

Although the rules specify which posts count (main feed, quotes, and reposts), the inclusion of 'replies recorded on the main feed' and 'deleted posts alive for ~5 mins' could cause counting disputes. Furthermore, heavy reliance on a specific tracker (xtracker) introduces the risk of technical glitches causing miscounts.

Outside of heavy prediction market participants, the general public would almost never think to track or predict the exact number of social media posts a world leader makes in a specific week, making it a typical exotic quantitative market.

April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026: The price of the '80-99' option surged from 34.8c to 64.35c, while '60-79' plummeted from 63c to 40.5c. The reason is that the cumulative post count has steadily increased and is likely approaching the 80 threshold, causing a massive shift in market expectations from the 60-79 to the 80-99 bracket. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026: The price of the '40-59' option dropped significantly from 32.5c to 11c, as the cumulative post count over time has clearly surpassed or is about to surpass the upper limit of this bracket, greatly reducing market expectations of it landing there. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The prices of the '100-119' and '80-99' options plummeted from ~37c and 42c down to single digits (~3c and 8c) respectively, as being halfway through the time period drastically reduced the mathematical probability of extreme post volumes, wiping out earlier speculative premiums. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026: The '60-79' option steadily climbed from 38.5c to 59.5c, as the accumulated pacing on the post tracker made this bracket the mathematical favorite. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026: The '140-159' option spiked from 1.65c to 27.2c before instantly collapsing to 0.6c, and '160-179' crashed from 22c to 0.6c, as the mathematical probability of such high counts dwindled with the passing time, wiping out early irrational speculation. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026: The '100-119' option experienced extreme volatility, spiking from 7.1c to 44.95c before dumping to 13.7c, reflecting market overreaction to a single-day burst of posts followed by rational correction. April 9, 2026 - April 10, 2026: The price of the '120-139' option spiked from 16.5c to 31.65c before dropping to 12.45c, likely due to a brief speculative surge on the possibility of higher frequency posting, which was quickly flattened by arbitrageurs. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026: Several high-frequency options ('180-199', '200+', '100-119') plummeted by more than 10c (e.g., '180-199' dropped from 21.6c to 1.65c). As the time window progressed, the mathematical probability of extreme post volumes collapsed, forcing a market correction. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026: The '20-39' option crashed from 24.5c to 8c, presumably because early tracking data showed a fast posting pace, effectively eliminating the likelihood of the lowest brackets.

Resolution relies primarily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than directly on the visible X profile. Furthermore, the rule regarding deleted posts (requiring them to be live for ~5 minutes to be captured) and the handling of replies introduce subtle edge cases that could cause discrepancies between manual user counts and the tracker's final tally.

Forecasting the exact number of tweets a specific national leader will post in a given week is quite a niche and unconventional topic. Unless a major geopolitical crisis is unfolding, the general public rarely contemplates or predicts such highly specific social media behavioral frequencies.

April 14 to April 16, 2026: The '<5' option surged from 29.5c to 86c, as the resolution date approaches with very few posts, confirming the market's expectation that the total will remain under 5. April 14 to April 15, 2026: The '10-14' option spiked from 6.6c to 46.35c before dropping back to 9.1c, caused by anomalous small buy orders in an extremely illiquid market creating severe temporary mispricing. April 13 to April 14, 2026: The '<5' option surged from 20c to 72c, as time elapsed with very few posts, cementing expectations that the total count will remain under 5. April 13 to April 14, 2026: The '30-34' option spiked from 3.5c to 63.7c, driven by extreme illiquidity where small trades caused massive short-term mispricing. April 12 to April 13, 2026: The '40-44' option plummeted from 41.75c to 2.6c, as the exceptionally poor liquidity and early anomalous high bids were corrected back to a reasonable range. April 10 to April 11, 2026: Prices of multiple options such as '50-54' and '45-49' surged from around 2c to over 45c, while lower ranges like '15-19' doubled from 20c to 47c. This was caused by extreme illiquidity, where small trades led to chaotic and massive mispricing across all brackets. April 9 to April 10, 2026: The '<5' option plummeted from 58c to 23.5c, while '60+' surged from 0.15c to 22.95c. This extreme volatility was driven by corrections as the tracking period began, exacerbated by severe illiquidity. April 7 to April 8, 2026: Both '55-59' and '60+' options crashed from 25c to roughly 1.5c, as the market adjusted to the highly improbable nature of Khamenei posting nearly 60 times in a single week.

The market relies heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and has explicit caveats for replies and deleted posts (e.g., deleted posts count if captured within ~5 minutes). Latency in tracker data capture versus the actual X timeline could lead to resolution disputes, especially near the boundaries of the options.

Predicting the exact number of times a specific politician posts on social media within a given week is a highly niche and novelty concept that nobody outside of prediction market participants would naturally think about or track.

2026-04-14 - 2026-04-16, the price of the 60-79 option plummeted from 64c to 7.5c, while the 80-99 option surged from 24.45c to 79.85c. This is because Ted Cruz's post count continued to increase, rapidly breaching the upper limit of 60-79 and making the market confident the final count will fall in the 80-99 bracket. 2026-04-14 - 2026-04-15, the price of the 40-59 option plummeted from 38c to 3c, while the 60-79 option surged from 45c to 58c, and the 80-99 option rose from 24.45c to 38.9c. This is because Ted Cruz's post count continued to accumulate, making it highly unlikely that the final total will land in the 40-59 range, prompting capital to rapidly shift to the higher 60-79 and 80-99 brackets. 2026-04-12 - 2026-04-13, the price of the 40-59 option surged from 26c to 49c, while the 80-99 option plummeted from 34.5c to 13.5c. This is because Ted Cruz's posting rate dropped noticeably during this period, leading to a massive downward revision in the market's expectation of the final post count. 2026-04-12 - 2026-04-12, the price of the 60-79 option plummeted from 55.5c to 30c, and the 40-59 option fell from 46.5c to 28.5c, while the 80-99 option surged from 19.5c to 32.5c. This was caused by a short-term spike in posting activity, prompting an upward revision in the market's estimated total volume. 2026-04-10 - 2026-04-11, the price of the 100-119 option plummeted from 29c to 5.5c. This is because, as the first day's posting data became clearer, expectations for a very high frequency of over 100 posts cooled significantly, leading to a rapid withdrawal of capital. 2026-04-10 - 2026-04-11, the price of the 80-99 option fell from a peak of 47c to 28.5c, reflecting the market's recalibration of the total volume based on the latest posting rate.

Predicting the exact numerical bucket of posts a politician makes on a specific social media platform over a single week is highly granular and mostly functions as a degenerate betting market rather than a topic of serious mainstream interest.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the 120-139 bracket surged from 34c to 75.5c, while the 140-159 bracket plunged from a peak of 68.3c down to 26.5c. This occurred because Trump's posting frequency slowed down significantly as the deadline approached, making the 120-139 range the highly probable final outcome. April 16, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the 140-159 bracket surged from 1.3c to 55c, the 100-119 bracket crashed from 66c to 0.05c, and the 120-139 bracket dropped from 71.5c to 34c. This was caused by a massive, sudden burst of posts by Trump right before the deadline, rapidly pushing the total past previous low expectations and highly likely into the 140-159 range. April 16, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the 100-119 bracket surged from 26.5c to 50.5c, while the 120-139 bracket plummeted from 67c to 46c. This was caused by a sharp slowdown in posting frequency on the final day, heavily shifting probabilities back to the lower bracket. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the 140-159 bracket plunged from 24.5c to 3.55c, while the 100-119 bracket rebounded from 5.5c to 27.5c. This was caused by a slowdown in posting pace, eliminating hopes of hitting the higher 140+ range while increasing the tail risk of falling short of 120. April 14, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the 120-139 bracket surged from 26.5c to a peak of 73.5c, while the 100-119 bracket plummeted from a high of 60c to 16.5c. This was caused by the steady accumulation of posts making it nearly certain the total would surpass 119, triggering a massive capital shift into the 120-139 bracket. April 14, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the 140-159 bracket surged from 6.1c to a high of 24.5c before falling back to 5c. This was driven by a temporary burst in posting frequency that raised fears of hitting a higher bracket, which later cooled as the pace slowed. April 13, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the 100-119 bracket rose from 34.5c to 49.5c, while the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 26c to 9c. This was caused by Trump's posting frequency remaining consistently high over the tracked period, dramatically increasing the likelihood of finishing in the 100-119 range and sharply reducing the chance of the 80-99 outcome. April 12, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 80-99 bracket plummeted from 38.5c to 26c, as Trump's actual posting frequency further accelerated, shifting market expectations towards higher brackets. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 80-99 bracket dropped from 39.5c to 26c, while the 120-139 bracket rose from 11c to 23.5c. This was caused by an accelerated posting frequency mid-cycle, shifting the projected total higher. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the 60-79 bracket dropped from 18.5c to 2.35c. This was caused by the continuous release of actual posting data over the first couple of days, where the pace made reaching such a low total highly unlikely. April 10, 2026 - April 11, 2026, the 140-159 bracket plunged from 12.15c to 2.2c. This was caused by the release of the first day's actual posting data, making a very high total unlikely and triggering a sell-off. April 7, 2026 - April 10, 2026, the 60-79 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 11c, the 120-139 bracket dropped from 26.5c to 15c, and the 140-159 bracket plunged from 26.5c to 4.5c. Multiple brackets initially shared an anomalously identical price due to early illiquidity, which corrected as market makers established a consensus around the 80-119 range. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the 80-99 bracket surged from 30c to 42.5c, before settling back to around 35c on the 10th. This movement reflects an initial strong consensus on this median range, which later saw some capital shift towards adjacent high-probability brackets.