There is a slight divergence in expectations. The market currently prices the '60-61°F' option highest at 18¢, implying it is the favorite. However, the latest meteorological models (e.g., Weather25 and Time and Date) forecast high temperatures peaking at 58°F or 59°F, making the '58-59°F' range fundamentally more likely to occur.

While the title mentions Seoul, the rules explicitly state that the resolution relies on data from the Incheon Intl Airport station. Incheon is coastal, and its temperatures often differ from downtown Seoul, which could easily mislead traders who do not read the fine print.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of the 18°C option surged from 14.5c to 42.5c, while the 20°C option experienced heavy volatility, dropping from 14.5c to 8c before spiking to 23c and falling back to 14c. The 19°C option rose from 17c to 28.5c before dropping to 13.5c. This was caused by the release of updated short-term weather models as the resolution date neared, prompting traders to reallocate their positions around specific temperature ranges.

Predicting the highest daily temperature of a specific city on a particular date is highly niche. Aside from locals or meteorology enthusiasts, the general public rarely considers this, making it quite a novel and exotic market.