Highest temperature in Paris on April 9?
Weather|$10.6k Vol|
time2 days 4 hrs

Highest temperature in Paris on April 9? - AI Found +43.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.06 15:34
Top Undervalued
+43.5¢
23°C or higher(No)
+15¢
21°C(Yes)
+13¢
22°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Paris on April 9? AI analysis: • +43.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast trends (as of April 6, 2026), the expected highest temperature ...
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Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 7?
Weather|$20.7k Vol|
time4 hrs 40 mins

Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 7?

Top Undervalued
+10¢
15°C(Yes)
+9.5¢
17°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Latest weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature in Istanbul on April 7, 2026, is expe...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Moderate novelty. While the general public rarely bets on the exact temperature of a specific city on a given day, it is a standard data-based market on prediction platforms (weather derivatives) and not entirely bizarre.
Movers
April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026: The price of '16°C' surged from 14.5c to 36.5c, and '15°C' rose from 24c to 31.5c, while '14°C' plummeted from 27.5c to 7.5c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approached, updated weather models indicated a weaker-than-expected cold air impact, shifting the temperature forecast significantly upward due to spring warming. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of '13°C' dropped from 26.5c to 2.85c as updated weather data ruled out the likelihood of prolonged lower temperatures. April 4, 2026: The price of '14°C' surged from 17c to 29c before settling at 27c, driven by new forecasts confirming the impact of a cold front and locking expectations around 14°C. April 4, 2026: The price of '16°C' dropped from 24c to 13c, reflecting the downward revision of expected highs, which significantly reduced the probability of reaching 16°C or above. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026: The price of '19°C or higher' plummeted from 26c to 3c, as approaching the resolution date, updated weather models ruled out extreme heat, with cold air drastically lowering the temperature forecasts.
AI Analysis
What is the historical frequency of Istanbul hitting these specific temperature ranges in early April?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?
Geopolitics|$21.9k Vol|
time4 days 16 hrs

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 12?

Top Undervalued
+7¢
8-11(No)
+5¢
16-19(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices indicate that the 7-day moving average transit volume is most likely to fall i...
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Exotics
While the Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global energy markets, the general public rarely tracks the exact 7-day moving average of ship transits on a specific date. This is a relatively specialized and niche market tailored for macro/geopolitical followers.
Hedging
Crude Oil
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil transport. An unexpected and significant drop in ship transits (e.g., falling into the lowest bracket) typically indicates a severe geopolitical crisis or military blockade in the Middle East. This would cause a major shock to global Crude Oil prices and trigger a massive price spike.
Movers
April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '12-15' option surged from 22c to 41.5c before falling back to 30c. The reason is that new data released during this period caused the market to briefly believe this range was the most likely, followed by an adjustment in expectations. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '16-19' option plummeted from 39c to 12.5c before rebounding to 21.5c. The reason is that the market had significant divergence and re-evaluation regarding whether transit volumes could reach higher levels. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the '<4' option plummeted from 25c to 5c, '4-7' dropped from 47c to 28c, and '12-15' fell from 44c to 29.5c. The reason is that as time passes, transit volumes in the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, causing expectations for extremely low volumes to cool rapidly, with capital reallocating to moderate recovery brackets.
AI Analysis
Verify the update frequency of the IMF Portwatch Strait of Hormuz transit calls. Is there a risk that the April 12 data might be delayed beyond 7 days, triggering the fallback resolution rule?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 7?
Weather|$14.9k Vol|
time4 hrs 40 mins

Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 7?

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
25°C(No)
+5¢
24°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the market price distribution and latest implied probabilities, the highest temperature for...
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Movers
April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of 22°C plummeted from ~9.5c to 3.5c, and 23°C dropped from 16c to 7c; meanwhile, 24°C peaked at 39c before correcting to 27c. This was driven by weather forecasting models further narrowing the prediction interval as the event day approaches, ruling out lower temperature extremes. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price for 25°C surged from ~15c to 31.5c, and 26°C surged from 11.5c to 29.5c. Concurrently, 29°C or higher plummeted from 23.5c to ~3c, and 27°C dropped from 18.5c to 5c. This was driven by updated weather forecasting models indicating cooler-than-previously-expected temperatures, shifting the probability mass to the mid-20s.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules for the April 7 Mexico City highest temperature market in simple terms, especially regarding the Wunderground data source and the rule against subsequent revisions.
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - 12?
Weather|$54.4k Vol|
time4 days 16 hrs

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 6 - 12?

Top Undervalued
+4¢
2(Yes)
+2.5¢
0(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Globally, earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher occur about 40-50 times a year, which translates to...
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Rule Risk
There is a noticeable discrepancy between the stated settlement time (April 12, 00:00) and the actual end of the market timeframe (April 12, 11:59 PM ET). Additionally, USGS often revises initial earthquake magnitudes near the 6.5 threshold, which along with the 24-hour revision rule could lead to contentious or delayed resolutions.
Exotics
Predicting the exact count of major global earthquakes within a highly specific, short timeframe (one week) is quite niche. Lacking reliable short-term earthquake forecasting technology, this market acts more as a gamble on natural randomness than an event driven by analyzable trends.
Movers
April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the Yes prices for all options except '0' and '1' (i.e., 2, 3, 4, 5, >5) plummeted, with drops ranging from 20c to 38c (e.g., '2' dropped from 43c to 12.5c, '3' from 38.5c to 5.5c). The reason is that on April 4th, market illiquidity or broken pricing caused the sum of probabilities to grossly exceed 100% (over 260%). On April 5th, arbitrageurs or market makers stepped in, normalizing the prices back to their correct statistical Poisson distribution probabilities.
AI Analysis
Based on historical USGS data, what is the average frequency of magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes occurring globally within any 7-day window?
What will Trump say this week? (April 12)
Mentions|$94.9k Vol|
time4 days 16 hrs

What will Trump say this week? (April 12)

Top Undervalued
+29¢
Delcy / Rodriguez(Yes)
+26¢
Pam / Bondi(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
This market's pricing relies heavily on the verification of audio/video recordings of Trump's public...
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Rule Risk
The rules strictly exclude Truth Social posts and written statements, limiting valid mentions to recorded verbal instances only. This heavily contradicts the casual intuition of Trump 'saying' something and acts as a major trap for bettors. Additionally, there are strict boundary constraints on plurals, possessives, and compound words.
Exotics
This is a typical political-entertainment 'bingo' market. Prior to seeing this event, practically no one would seriously predict whether Trump would utter completely random words like 'Potato' or 'Stone Age' in a given week, making it a highly novelty and entertaining market.
Movers
April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of South Korea surged from 26c to 99.95c, highly likely due to a verified mention in a recent public speech. April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of Stone Age skyrocketed from 26c to 98c, indicating that clear audio/video evidence of the term has emerged. April 4, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of Shit / Ass surged from 50c to 98.45c, similarly suggesting a verified mention during a speech. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of Keir / Starmer surged from 26c to 71.5c (peaking at 80.5c), likely due to anticipated diplomatic engagements or expected commentary regarding the UK Prime Minister. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of Make America Great Again jumped from 50c to 82.5c before settling at 73.5c, and ultimately surging to 99.95c on the 6th, reflecting shifting rally expectations and eventual confirmation. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of Epic Fury rose from 59.5c to 82c, possibly because Trump signaled strong impending rhetoric.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this 'What will Trump say' market like I'm 5, specifically clarifying the strict rules around verbal vs. written mentions (like Truth Social), compound words, and the exclusion of AI-generated deepfakes.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
23°C or higher
YesNo
79.5¢
20.5¢
36¢
64¢
0¢
+43.5¢
21°C
YesNo
5¢
95¢
20¢
80¢
+15¢
0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '23°C or higher' option surged from around 11c to 52.5c. The reason is that as the date approaches, the latest weather models significantly upgraded the highest temperature forecast for Paris on April 9, indicating a strong warming trend. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '15°C' option plummeted from 20c to 0.55c, as the sharply increased temperature forecast made this low temperature highly improbable. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '16°C' option plummeted from 20c to 0.8c, also due to the significant warming forecast ruling out lower temperatures. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '17°C' option plummeted from 20.5c to 1.5c, a direct result of the overall upward shift in temperature expectations. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '18°C' option plummeted from 20c to 1.5c, reflecting mass sell-offs of lower temperature options. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '19°C' option dropped from 26c to about 7.55c, showing that even 19°C is now considered too low. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '20°C' option dropped from 25c to 6c, as extreme heat expectations rose, drastically reducing its probability. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the '21°C' option dropped from 25.5c to 11c; although previously considered a mainstream prediction, it faced sell-offs amidst expectations of even higher temperatures.

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