All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
18°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
22°C or higher
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
12°C or below
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 18:17 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Wunderground's latest forecast for March 19 stabilizes the high around 61°F (16.1°C), occasionally touching 62°F (16.6°C). Under rounding rules, 16.1°C resolves to 16°C, while 16.6°C resolves to 17°C. This makes 16°C the highest probability outcome (covering the 60°F-61°F range), followed closely by 17°C (covering the 62°F-63°F range). The market's current pricing of 16°C at 34.5c is slightly conservative; fair value should be above 40c. 15°C and 18°C serve merely as hedge options for minor weather variances.
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Movers
Mar 15, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, the price of the 16°C option surged from 21c to 37c (settling at 34.5c) because as the forecast date approached, weather models pinpointed the high temperature specifically around 16°C, eliminating previous uncertainty.
Mar 15, 2026, the price of the '22°C or higher' option crashed from 26c to 6.5c, likely due to an initial mispricing or data misinterpretation by the market, which was quickly corrected as it became clear extreme heat was impossible.
