All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
17°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
18°C or higher
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
8°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
10 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Consolidating data from Met Office, MeteoProg, and Weather Underground, the forecast for Paris on March 22 clusters between 14°C and 16°C (consensus around 15°C), following a cooling trend starting Thursday (18°C). The market significantly overprices '18°C or higher' (26c), ignoring the expected temperature drop. Fair value is anchored at 15°C (30c) with major weight distributed between 14°C and 16°C.
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Exotics
Weather prediction is a niche market. While not completely obscure (everyone checks forecasts), it is relatively exotic as a betting subject unless for specific commodity traders or locals. It is more exotic than political elections but far more regular than questions like 'Will Jesus resurrect?'.
Divergence
Significant divergence. Market pricing assigns a 26% probability to '18°C or higher', while mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., Met Office) indicate temperatures dropping below 16°C, potentially to 14-15°C. The market appears to be betting on a 'heat' outcome contrary to the forecasted cooling trend.
