Retrieve the latest Polymarket order book for "Highest temperature in Paris on March 23", focusing on liquidity depth for the 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C options; combining this with the latest 4-day Forecast for Charles de Gaulle (LFPG) on Wunderground, update the assessment of fair value and potential correction risks in the current odds distribution.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest Polymarket order book for "Highest temperature in Paris on March 23", focusing on liquidity depth for the 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C options; combining this with the latest 4-day Forecast for Charles de Gaulle (LFPG) on Wunderground, update the assessment of fair value and potential correction risks in the current odds distribution.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the historical temperature difference between Paris city center and Charles de Gaulle Airport (LFPG) in March; given the market resolves strictly via Wunderground's LFPG station, determine if general "Paris" forecasts (often based on the city center heat island) are creating a misleading 1-2°C premium over the actual resolution criteria.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the historical temperature difference between Paris city center and Charles de Gaulle Airport (LFPG) in March; given the market resolves strictly via Wunderground's LFPG station, determine if general "Paris" forecasts (often based on the city center heat island) are creating a misleading 1-2°C premium over the actual resolution criteria.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Synthesize the latest outputs from mainstream weather models (GFS, ECMWF) for Paris CDG on March 23 (currently AccuWeather predicts 15°C/59°F); if the consensus clusters in the 15-16°C range, calculate the Expected Value (EV) of the "15°C" and "16°C" options and assess the arbitrage opportunity of fading overvalued "17°C" or higher options via limit orders.

AI-powered analysis for: Synthesize the latest outputs from mainstream weather models (GFS, ECMWF) for Paris CDG on March 23 (currently AccuWeather predicts 15°C/59°F); if the consensus clusters in the 15-16°C range, calculate the Expected Value (EV) of the "15°C" and "16°C" options and assess the arbitrage opportunity of fading overvalued "17°C" or higher options via limit orders.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$8,337 Vol|

3 days 5 hrs

Highest temperature in Paris on March 23? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

14°C

YesNo

24¢

76¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+19¢

15°C

YesNo

19¢

81¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+14¢

10°C or below

YesNo

1.2¢

98.8¢

15¢

85¢

+13.8¢

0¢

11°C

YesNo

1.35¢

98.65¢

8¢

92¢

+6.7¢

0¢

16°C

YesNo

26¢

74¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+6¢

18°C

YesNo

9¢

91¢

15¢

85¢

+6¢

0¢

13°C

YesNo

9.65¢

90.35¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+4.6¢

17°C

YesNo

25.5¢

74.5¢

30¢

70¢

+4.5¢

0¢

19°C

YesNo

2.5¢

97.5¢

5¢

95¢

+2.5¢

0¢

12°C

YesNo

3.1¢

96.9¢

5¢

95¢

+1.9¢

0¢

20°C or higher

YesNo

2.65¢

97.35¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+0.6¢

AI Insights:

03.19 11:02 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Current meteorological data indicates a significant model divergence (bimodal distribution). The res...

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Divergence

Significant model divergence exists. While the market favorite (17°C) aligns with the resolution source's (Wunderground) current forecast, other mainstream media/apps (AccuWeather, Weather Network) predict temperatures as low as 9-10°C. The market's current pricing (8 cents for 10°C or below) almost entirely ignores the plausibility of the cold air model, indicating a heavy reliance on the resolution source proxy while neglecting meteorological uncertainty.

Highest temperature in Paris on March 23? - AI Odds Analysis

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