Quite niche. Predicting the exact highest temperature in a specific city on a specific future date is a highly specialized meteorological prediction market. Unless there is an extreme weather event, the general public rarely guesses such fine-grained precise data.

May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The Yes price for 30°C surged from 9c to 25c, and the 32°C option also spiked from 16.5c to 28c. This was due to the approaching resolution day, where updated local meteorological cloud covers and precipitation probabilities prompted market participants to drastically revise their lower-bound temperature estimates before settling back into a rational equilibrium.

Betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a highly niche and novelty market, as the general public rarely speculates on such precise daily meteorological data.

May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026, the price of '27°C or higher' plummeted from 26c to around 1c, as closer-range weather forecasts ruled out extreme high temperatures. May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026, the price of '22°C' dropped from 16.5c to around 6c, as meteorological models trended towards the warmer 23-24°C range. May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026, the price of '24°C' climbed from 29.5c to 44c, as the forecasted high stabilized around 75°F (approx. 24°C).

May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The price of the 30°C option plummeted from 26.5c to 5.2c, while the 32°C option surged from 26.5c to 42.5c and the 31°C option rose from 27c to 35.5c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, updated weather forecasts have narrowed the maximum temperature range to 31°C-32°C for Changi Airport, largely ruling out a high of only 30°C.

While weather forecasting is a routine daily activity, betting on the precise peak temperature range of a specific city on a given day is a somewhat niche, albeit established, novelty topic in prediction markets.

May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026, the price of the 32°C option rose from 25c to 38.5c, and the 33°C option fluctuated significantly between 33.5c and 47.5c. This is because as the resolution date approaches, weather forecast models become more precise, strengthening the market consensus that the highest temperature will fall around 32°C or 33°C, leading to active trading between these two options.

Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a relatively niche, everyday topic. While not as absurd as supernatural events, such highly specific weather guessing games lack broad macro significance and serve more as novelty or entertainment subjects in prediction markets.

May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026, the price of the 29°C option surged from 18c to 44c, because as the expiration date approached, the latest weather forecasts converged more around 29°C, significantly boosting market confidence.