AI Signal Dashboard
Last updated: 4 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+18.5¢
78°F or higher(Yes)
+6¢
74-75°F(No)
+5.5¢
76-77°F(No)
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4? AI analysis: • +18.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 2 days until settlement, weather forecasts have reached a strong consensus on an anom...
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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
78°F or higher
YesNo
61.5¢
38.5¢
80¢
20¢
+18.5¢
0¢
74-75°F
YesNo
11¢
89¢
5¢
95¢
0¢
+6¢
Expand to view all 11 options
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
From April 1, 2026, to April 3, 2026, the '78°F or higher' option surged from 53.5c to 80.5c, as the approaching date allowed weather models to solidify expectations of anomalous high temperatures, greatly boosting market confidence.
From March 31, 2026, to April 3, 2026, the '72-73°F' option plummeted from 15.5c to 1.6c, as the median temperature forecast shifted significantly upward, minimizing the probability of this lower range.
From March 31, 2026, to April 1, 2026, the price of the '78°F or higher' option surged from 51.5c to 65.5c before settling at 54.5c, as weather forecasts confirmed expectations of extreme high temperatures, attracting aggressive buying.
From March 30, 2026, to March 31, 2026, the '74-75°F' option plummeted from 28.5c to 13c because meteorological models further upgraded the overall temperature distribution, sharply reducing the probability for this range.
From March 30, 2026, 00:00 to March 31, 2026, 19:20, the price of the '59°F or below' option plummeted from 40.5c to 0.6c. The reason is that as the date approaches, weather forecasts indicate a sharply decreased probability of extremely low temperatures.
From March 30, 2026, 00:00 to March 31, 2026, 13:55, the price of the '78°F or higher' option surged from 40.5c to 58c. The reason is that new weather forecasts have revised upwards the expected high temperature for April 4.
Between 01:05 and 03:15 on March 30, 2026, the price of the '62-63°F' option spiked from 7.5c to 17c before falling back to 8.5c. This was caused by extremely low market liquidity, where small buy orders can trigger severe transient price fluctuations.