May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026, the price of the 26°C option plummeted from 40.5c to 10c before rebounding to around 34c, while the prices for 27°C and 28°C also experienced sharp fluctuations (e.g., 27°C dropped from 42.5c to 27.5c and then rallied). This was caused by intraday updates in meteorological models as the date approached, causing investor expectations to swing regarding whether the high would break above 27°C. May 20, 2026 - May 21, 2026, the price of the 25°C option dropped from 15.3c to around 4c. The reason is that as the date drew nearer, forecasts stabilized at higher temperature ranges (above 26°C), drastically reducing the probability of lower temperature outcomes.

Between May 21 and May 22, 2026, the price for 22°C plummeted from 34.5c to 14c, and 23°C dropped from 24.5c to 12.5c; simultaneously, the price for 20°C surged from 11.5c to 30.5c, and 21°C surged from 19.5c to 36.5c. This occurred because, as the date approached, meteorological forecast models were updated to predict a lower maximum temperature than previously expected, prompting the market to adjust its expected range accordingly.

The title mentions the highest temperature in 'Seoul', but the resolution rules explicitly specify the data source as the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station'. Incheon is coastal, and its temperatures often differ significantly (usually cooler) from central Seoul. Additionally, the rules specify precision only to whole degrees Celsius, dropping decimal precision, which is a notable trap.

May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from 28.5c to 45c, and the 23°C option surged from 15c to 41c, while the 21°C option plummeted from 29c to 0c. This was driven by the latest precise weather models and actual meteorological data narrowing and raising the expected maximum temperature range as the settlement date approaches, concentrating heavily on 22°C and 23°C. May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 18.5c to 29.5c, while the 22°C option also rose from 22.5c to a peak of 32.5c. This was because the latest weather models at the time concentrated the expected maximum temperature range heavily on 21°C and 22°C.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a typical 'weather bet.' It is quite niche and micro-level for the general public, though it remains a standard natural data prediction within prediction markets.

May 22, 2026 - May 22, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 19.5c to 38.5c due to updated meteorological models indicating a higher likelihood of the peak temperature reaching 24°C as the day approached. May 22, 2026 - May 22, 2026, the price of the 22°C option plummeted from 15c to 6.5c as weather forecast medians shifted upwards, pricing out the probability of lower peak temperatures.

The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) interest rate decision directly impacts the valuation of the South African Rand (ZAR) and South African assets. An unexpected hike or cut would cause significant volatility in the USD/ZAR exchange rate and directly affect South African ETFs (like EZA). As South Africa is a major producer of gold and precious metals, extreme policy shifts could have a minor indirect pass-through to gold prices, but the primary impact is on regional assets.