All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
27°C
YesNo
29°C
YesNo
30°C
YesNo
23°C or below
YesNo
31°C
YesNo
26°C
YesNo
25°C
YesNo
33°C or higher
YesNo
28°C
YesNo
32°C
YesNo
24°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
2 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While the general Google/TWC forecast for Sao Paulo indicates 26°C, specific forecasts for the resolution source, Sao Paulo-Guarulhos (SBGR) Airport (e.g., AccuWeather), predict a high of 27°C (81°F). Airport stations often register slightly higher highs due to exposure. Ventusky and Metcheck models also align with 27°C. Given the clearing trend expected after Thursday's rain, the probability of temperatures rebounding to 27°C or 28°C is higher than sticking at 26°C. Thus, 27°C holds the highest fair value, with 26°C and 28°C as the primary hedge scenarios.
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Movers
March 16-18, 2026, the price of '27°C' surged from 17c to 30c, and '28°C' rose from 17c to 28c, as weather models ruled out the extreme cold scenarios initially feared due to rain. Capital rapidly rotated toward warmer options (27-28°C) that align better with climatological averages and updated forecasts.
March 16-18, 2026, the price of '23°C or below' collapsed from 26c to 2c, as forecasts confirmed a recovery on March 20 following Thursday's storms, effectively eliminating the probability of extreme low temperatures.
Divergence
Clear divergence exists. The generic Google/TWC forecast (parent data for Wunderground) for Sao Paulo is 26°C, yet the market clearly favors 27°C (~30c). This suggests traders are pricing in location-specific data for Guarulhos Airport (SBGR), where AccuWeather forecasts 27°C (81°F), or betting that actual temperatures will outperform the conservative general models.
