All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
27°C
YesNo
30°C
YesNo
29°C
YesNo
31°C
YesNo
28°C
YesNo
32°C
YesNo
25°C
YesNo
24°C or below
YesNo
26°C
YesNo
33°C
YesNo
34°C or higher
YesNo
AI Insights:
5 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest meteorological models from AccuWeather and The Weather Channel, the forecast high for Sao Paulo (SBGR) on March 21 implies a tight cluster between 27°C and 28°C. However, the prediction market shows a significant bias, favoring 29°C (29c) and overpricing warmer options (30°C+ sum to >50c). This 'hot bias' contradicts the meteorological data. 27°C and 28°C are the significantly undervalued core fair value options.
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Exotics
This is a typical weather prediction market. While not as mainstream as political elections, it is not extremely absurd (like an alien invasion). It belongs to a niche market; it might seem random to the general public but is standard for weather derivatives traders.
Movers
March 17, 2026, 10:30-12:40, the price of '24°C or below' crashed from 26c to 5.5c. The reason was a correction of the extreme outlier premium; as the event date approached, the liquidity allocated to this impossible outcome was rapidly withdrawn.
March 17, 2026, 11:35-12:40, the price of '27°C' dropped from 21c to 9c before rebounding to 18c later in the day. The reason was severe volatility during a liquidity redistribution event across the order book.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream weather forecasts consistently point to 27°C-28°C as the most probable outcome. However, the market's highest-priced option is 29°C, and the pricing for 30°C-32°C (summing to ~43c) is far higher than meteorological models support. Market participants appear to be hedging for a 'warmer than forecast' outcome, contradicting scientific data.
