March 24 has already begun in Wellington, and the authoritative MetService maintains a forecast high...

March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of 20°C surged from 25c to 40c (settling at 36c), while 21°C retreated from a high of 37.5c to 28c. This shift occurred as forecast sources (MetService and Wunderground) solidified around 20°C, causing the market to correct its previous over-weighting of 21°C. March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of 22°C crashed from 26c to 9c, and '23°C or higher' plummeted from 25c to 3c. The reason was MetService explicitly ruling out extreme heat, leading to a capitulation of speculative capital on the high end.

Current time in Chongqing is 9:30 PM on March 23, meaning the daily high has already occurred. Wunde...

Weather prediction is a niche market. While temperature is a common topic, betting on the exact temperature of a specific city on a specific date is relatively vertical. Most people wouldn't participate unless they specifically track local forecasts.

On March 23, 2026, the price of '17°C' surged from ~51c to 99c, while '18°C' crashed from 53c to under 1c. The reason is that as March 23 progressed in Chongqing, real-time observational data confirmed the high temperature did not breach 18°C (64°F) but settled at 17°C (63°F). This caused the market to rapidly converge on 17°C as the deterministic outcome, eliminating the prior uncertainty regarding 18°C.

The resolution source, Wunderground, uses IBM/The Weather Company data. The latest IBM forecast for ...

March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026: The price of '19°C or higher' crashed from 31c to 14c, while '18°C' surged from 20c to 32.5c. The driver was the confirmation of rain in short-term forecasts and the primary data source (IBM/Wunderground) settling on 18°C (64°F), invalidating previous speculation based on CMA's warmer 19°C outlook and shifting capital to the 18°C reality. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026: Prices for low-temperature options (11°C, 12°C, 13°C) collectively crashed from ~26c to single digits. This was likely a correction of initial market maker mispricing or a data glitch, returning the market to rational forecast ranges.

Moderate divergence exists. The prediction market currently favors 18°C (32.5c), aligning perfectly with the underlying IBM data (64°F/18°C) used by the resolution source. However, other authoritative sources like AccuWeather (17°C) and EaseWeather (16°C) predict cooler temperatures. The market is pricing specifically for the resolution rule (Wunderground) rather than a broad meteorological consensus.

Given the current date is Monday, March 23, 2026, with the next PMQs scheduled for Wednesday, March ...

This is a typical 'Political Word Bingo' market. While Prime Minister's Questions (PMQs) is a serious, regular political event, bettors are focused on the occurrence of specific vocabulary rather than policy substance. This gamification of political rhetoric qualifies it as a moderately exotic novelty market.

March 23, 2026 (Latest), the price of 'Abuse' suddenly collapsed to 18c (hovering between 30c-40c in previous days), likely indicating that the specific scandal or allegation driving this expectation has faded from the news cycle, or the parliamentary order paper suggests it won't be prioritized. March 20 - March 22, 2026, 'Reform' climbed steadily from 76c to 85c. Rather than retracing, the market strengthened its conviction that Starmer will target or be forced to defend against Reform UK during Wednesday's debate. March 19 - March 20, 2026, 'Ireland' experienced extreme volatility, crashing from 45c to 15c before rebounding to around 40c, revealing significant information asymmetry and speculation regarding whether Northern Ireland issues (like border or trade deals) will make the cut for PMQs.

Significant divergence exists: The price for 'Tory' is only 54c, which diverges from standard UK political norms. In PMQs, the incumbent Labour government almost invariably mentions 'Tory' to contrast policies or deflect blame (e.g., '14 years of Tory chaos'). The market may be over-indexing on current hot topics (Iran/Reform) while neglecting the high frequency of this baseline political rhetoric. It would be highly unusual for a PMQs session to pass without Starmer mentioning the Tories.

Current time is 13:31 UTC on March 23 (21:31 Beijing Time), meaning the daily temperature observatio...

2026-03-23 (Resolution Day), the price of 19°C crashed from 37c to 0c, while 18°C surged from 49c to 99c. The reason is that as the day concluded in Beijing, observational data confirmed the high did not reach the threshold required for 19°C (>18.5°C). The market rapidly corrected its earlier bet on warmer weather, settling on the 18°C aligned with standard forecasts. 2026-03-21 - 2026-03-22, Prices for 16°C and 17°C collapsed (17°C fell to 5c), while 19°C surged from 24c to 49c. Meteorological models revised earlier 'strong cold front' expectations, confirming limited cooling and causing capital to shift aggressively towards warmer options.