All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
56-57°F
YesNo
48-49°F
YesNo
52-53°F
YesNo
50-51°F
YesNo
58-59°F
YesNo
42-43°F
YesNo
41°F or below
YesNo
54-55°F
YesNo
60°F or higher
YesNo
44-45°F
YesNo
46-47°F
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service (NWS), the high temperature for Seattle (KSEA) on March 21 is expected to be 'near 49°F' with mostly cloudy skies. The Weather Channel (Google) also forecasts a high of 49°F. In contrast, local KING5 predicts 52°F, and AccuWeather predicts 54°F. Given the consensus between NWS and TWC pointing to 49°F, and considering KSEA airport can be cooler than the city center, the '48-49°F' option is undervalued and should be the primary favorite. '50-51°F' is a solid hedge in case sunbreaks occur. The market is currently overpricing the probability of temps >52°F (relying too much on AccuWeather) while discounting the NWS baseline.
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, prices for high-temperature options like '60°F or higher' and '54-55°F' crashed from ~25c to ~1c and ~7c respectively, while '41°F or below' also plummeted from 25c to 1c. This indicates a massive market correction, shedding extreme tail risks and consolidating capital into the core 48-53°F range. The driver is increased certainty in meteorological models (NWS, TWC) as the event entered the 3-day forecast window, eliminating speculation on outliers.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market currently prices '50-51°F' as the favorite (30c), likely influenced by warmer forecasts from KING5 (52°F) or AccuWeather (54°F). However, the NWS and Google/TWC—authoritative sources for station data—explicitly forecast a high of 49°F, making '48-49°F' (currently 27.5c) fundamentally more valuable than the market favorite.
