What are the exact resolution rules for the April 7 Seoul temperature market, and how and when is the Wunderground data for the Incheon Airport station finalized?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the exact resolution rules for the April 7 Seoul temperature market, and how and when is the Wunderground data for the Incheon Airport station finalized?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on current weather forecast models (like GFS or ECMWF) for Incheon Airport on April 7, how accurate is the high-temperature prediction, and to what extent is this a predictable event versus random variance?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on current weather forecast models (like GFS or ECMWF) for Incheon Airport on April 7, how accurate is the high-temperature prediction, and to what extent is this a predictable event versus random variance?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the low trading volume ($1,026) in this weather market, how can I place 'stink bids' across the different temperature brackets' deep order books to catch panic selling triggered by sudden forecast changes?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the low trading volume ($1,026) in this weather market, how can I place 'stink bids' across the different temperature brackets' deep order books to catch panic selling triggered by sudden forecast changes?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Seoul on April 7?

Weather|$15.7k Vol|

1 days 21 hrs

Highest temperature in Seoul on April 7? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.04 19:36

Top Undervalued

+7¢

14°C(Yes)

+6.5¢

11°C(No)

+5.9¢

9°C(No)

Highest temperature in Seoul on April 7? AI analysis: • +7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest forecasts from weather platforms like Wunderground, the highest temperature at I...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

14°C

YesNo

8¢

92¢

15¢

85¢

+7¢

0¢

11°C

YesNo

21.5¢

78.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+6.5¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Rule Risk

There is a notable discrepancy risk: while the title says 'Seoul', the resolution criteria explicitly specify the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station' (RKSI). Incheon is a different, coastal municipality with temperatures that often differ significantly from central Seoul. Additionally, the market resolves strictly to Wunderground's rounded whole-degree Celsius figures, meaning more precise official data won't count.

Exotics

While checking the weather is a mundane daily activity, placing bets on the exact daily high temperature bracket for a specific localized station in a prediction market is somewhat niche and functions as a novelty market.

Movers

From April 3 to April 4, 2026, the Yes price for 11°C dropped from 28c to 15.5c, as some meteorological models shifted their forecasted high-temperature range upward. From April 3 to April 4, 2026, the prices for both 9°C and 10°C saw declines of over 15c (e.g., 9°C plummeted from 18c to 2c), indicating that the market has largely priced out extreme cold scenarios. From April 3 to April 4, 2026, the '15°C or higher' option dropped from 24.5c to 11c before slightly rebounding to 14.5c, showing that short-term speculative bets on unexpected temperature spikes are cooling down.