All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
11°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
15°C or higher
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
5°C or below
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 13:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the latest forecast from Wunderground (the resolution source) for Incheon Airport (RKSI) on March 20, the high is expected to be 51°F (approx. 10.6°C), which strongly points to 11°C as the most likely resolution. AccuWeather predicts 50°F (10°C), PredictWind forecasts 13°C, while the Met Office is lower at 9°C. Given the correlation between the resolution source's forecast and its historical logging, and that 51°F sits on the border of 10°C and 11°C (rounding to 11°C), fair value is heavily concentrated on 10°C and 11°C. The market's current pricing for 9°C (20c) is elevated compared to the primary source forecasts (50-51°F).
Sign up to view more information
Exotics
This is a weather prediction market. While weather is a common topic, betting on the specific high temperature of a specific location on a specific day is a niche market, carrying more novelty and randomness than standard sports or political election markets.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of 7°C crashed from 17c to 5c, because as the date approached, weather forecasts converged towards a warmer 10°C-11°C range, causing a sell-off in the lower-temperature tail options (6-8°C).
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of 8°C dropped from 20c to 12c, for the same reason, as the market confirmed the weakening of the cold snap impact.
Divergence
Divergence exists. The market assigns a very high weight to 9°C (20%), putting it on par with 10°C and 11°C. However, the resolution source Wunderground explicitly forecasts 51°F (11°C), and AccuWeather forecasts 50°F (10°C). While the Met Office predicts 9°C, given that Wunderground is the sole resolution source, the market is over-hedging the 9°C risk, leaving 10°C/11°C undervalued relative to the source forecast.
