All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
11°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
14°C or higher
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
4°C or below
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
5°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Specific forecasts for Incheon Intl Airport (RKSI) point to a slight warming trend for March 21. AccuWeather and WeatherBug both explicitly forecast 11°C (52°F) for this station, while Weather25 predicts 12°C (53°F). Although KMA shows a 14°C forecast, this likely applies to inland Seoul rather than the airport island, which is cooled by the ocean (typically 2-3 degrees lower). Therefore, fair value is heavily concentrated on 11°C and 12°C. The market currently overprices the 9°C and 10°C range (combined ~33%), ignoring the forecasted warming trend.
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Rule Risk
There is a distinct discrepancy between the title and the rules. The title specifies 'Seoul', but the resolution source is strictly 'Incheon Intl Airport'. Incheon is a coastal city, and its temperatures often differ significantly (usually cooler or with less variance) from downtown Seoul (inland). Traders relying on generic Seoul weather forecasts without checking the specific resolution location risk a total loss.
Movers
March 17, 2026: '14°C or higher' crashed from 25.5c to 8c, and '4°C or below' crashed from 25.5c to 0.5c. The reason is likely the correction of initial illiquid or uniform pricing as the event entered the reliable 10-day forecast window, eliminating extreme outcomes.
March 17, 2026: Prices for '9°C' and '10°C' saw significant volatility (spiking from ~17c to ~27c before retracting), reflecting intense trader positioning in this probable range.
Divergence
Divergence exists. Google Weather (often sourced from The Weather Channel) shows a significant cold outlier of 7°C for Saturday. In contrast, major commercial sources like AccuWeather and WeatherBug align on 11°C. The market pricing is currently blending these outcomes (spread across 9-12°C), but the 11°C outcome is supported by more specific station data than the cold outlier.
