Retrieve the latest order book data from the Polymarket event page, combine it with the latest temperature forecasts for Incheon Airport (RKSI) on March 22 from Wunderground and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and analyze whether the odds for popular options (e.g., 9°C-11°C) fully reflect meteorological fundamentals or if there is a discrepancy.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest order book data from the Polymarket event page, combine it with the latest temperature forecasts for Incheon Airport (RKSI) on March 22 from Wunderground and the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and analyze whether the odds for popular options (e.g., 9°C-11°C) fully reflect meteorological fundamentals or if there is a discrepancy.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the latest high-temperature forecasts for Incheon on March 22 from mainstream meteorological models like ECMWF, GFS, and AccuWeather, compare them with the implied probabilities of temperature buckets on Polymarket, and identify if there is any mispricing due to lags in the specific data source (Wunderground) or divergences among models.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the latest high-temperature forecasts for Incheon on March 22 from mainstream meteorological models like ECMWF, GFS, and AccuWeather, compare them with the implied probabilities of temperature buckets on Polymarket, and identify if there is any mispricing due to lags in the specific data source (Wunderground) or divergences among models.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low current trading volume ($78) of this market, formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy: calculate the potential returns of placing very low bids on adjacent temperature ranges (e.g., 7°C or 13°C) that might be affected by forecast volatility, aiming to capture value from panic selling or sharp price swings caused by illiquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low current trading volume ($78) of this market, formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy: calculate the potential returns of placing very low bids on adjacent temperature ranges (e.g., 7°C or 13°C) that might be affected by forecast volatility, aiming to capture value from panic selling or sharp price swings caused by illiquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$4,814 Vol|

3 days 13 hrs

Highest temperature in Seoul on March 22? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

14°C or higher

YesNo

16.5¢

83.5¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+11.5¢

13°C

YesNo

12¢

88¢

6¢

94¢

0¢

+6¢

10°C

YesNo

13¢

87¢

18¢

82¢

+5¢

0¢

12°C

YesNo

18.5¢

81.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+3.5¢

11°C

YesNo

19¢

81¢

22¢

78¢

+3¢

0¢

8°C

YesNo

6¢

94¢

8¢

92¢

+2¢

0¢

9°C

YesNo

10¢

90¢

12¢

88¢

+2¢

0¢

5°C

YesNo

1.55¢

98.45¢

3¢

97¢

+1.4¢

0¢

7°C

YesNo

6¢

94¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+1¢

4°C or below

YesNo

1.2¢

98.8¢

2¢

98¢

+0.8¢

0¢

6°C

YesNo

4.5¢

95.5¢

4¢

96¢

0¢

+0.5¢

AI Insights:

11 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on the latest weather forecast retrieved on March 18, 2026, the high temperature in Seoul for March 22 is expected to be around 11°C. Considering Incheon Airport is typically slightly cooler than the city center, the most likely range is 10°C-12°C. The market is significantly overpriced (Sum ~193%) and incorrectly favors 14°C+ (diverging from the forecast). Fair values are recalibrated to sum to 100%, anchoring on the 11°C forecast.

Sign up to view more information

Divergence

Double divergence exists: 1. **Pricing Divergence**: The sum of market implied probabilities is 193%, violating mathematical logic (should be 100%). 2. **Viewpoint Divergence**: Market prices suggest '14°C or higher' is the favorite (27%), whereas mainstream weather forecasts predict approx. 11°C. The market significantly overestimates the probability of warmer weather.

Highest temperature in Seoul on March 22? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner