Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and the context of extremely low volume ($1), and assess the probability of execution and potential slippage risk for placing limit orders on the most likely options like '11°C' or '12°C' given the lack of liquidity.

AI-powered analysis for: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and the context of extremely low volume ($1), and assess the probability of execution and potential slippage risk for placing limit orders on the most likely options like '11°C' or '12°C' given the lack of liquidity.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the specific hourly temperature forecast for Shanghai Pudong Airport (ZSPD) on March 19 via Wunderground, and compare it with GFS and ECMWF model data to verify if the core prediction is stable within a specific whole-degree bucket (e.g., 10°C) or straddling the borderline of two options (e.g., 10°C vs 11°C).

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the specific hourly temperature forecast for Shanghai Pudong Airport (ZSPD) on March 19 via Wunderground, and compare it with GFS and ECMWF model data to verify if the core prediction is stable within a specific whole-degree bucket (e.g., 10°C) or straddling the borderline of two options (e.g., 10°C vs 11°C).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the current forecasted high temperature and the common ±2°C error margin, calculate whether a portfolio strategy covering the three high-probability options of '10°C', '11°C', and '12°C' offers a better risk-adjusted return at current odds compared to betting on a single option.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the current forecasted high temperature and the common ±2°C error margin, calculate whether a portfolio strategy covering the three high-probability options of '10°C', '11°C', and '12°C' offers a better risk-adjusted return at current odds compared to betting on a single option.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$150.9k Vol|

17 hrs 37 mins

Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 19? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

12°C

YesNo

67.5¢

32.5¢

63¢

37¢

0¢

+4.5¢

11°C

YesNo

13¢

87¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+3¢

13°C

YesNo

17.5¢

82.5¢

20¢

80¢

+2.5¢

0¢

10°C

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

2¢

98¢

+0.9¢

0¢

14°C or higher

YesNo

4.4¢

95.6¢

5¢

95¢

+0.6¢

0¢

9°C

YesNo

0.35¢

99.65¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

7°C

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

6°C

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

5°C

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

4°C or below

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

8°C

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

AI Insights:

5 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

While the market has formed a strong consensus on 12°C (69.5c) and aggressively sold off 13°C (5.5c), latest real-time meteorological data shows a reversal signal. AccuWeather's specific forecast for Pudong Airport (ZSPD) has rebounded to 58°F (14.4°C), and TimeAndDate forecasts 56°F (13.3°C), contrasting sharply with the previous cooling thesis (10°C). Although Wunderground/IBM data may be cooler due to sea breeze effects (approx. 53-55°F), the warming in external models suggests 13°C is severely undervalued, while 11°C (20.5c) is overpriced given the warming trend. Considering the cooling effect of the sea breeze, 12°C remains the likely baseline, but 13°C offers significant odds value.

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Movers

March 18, 2026 (Last 12 hours), the price of '13°C' crashed from 26.5c to 5.5c, as the market digested a short-term cooling forecast from AccuWeather (which momentarily dipped to 10°C), causing capital to panic-sell into the 12°C option. March 17 - March 18, 2026, the price of '12°C' surged from 46.5c to 69.5c, as this option became the primary beneficiary of the cooling expectations, absorbing most of the liquidity draining from 13°C and 14°C.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket pricing is heavily skewed towards 12°C (69.5%) and treats 13°C (5.5%) as highly unlikely. However, mainstream weather apps AccuWeather (Pudong) and TimeAndDate currently show forecast highs of 14°C and 13°C respectively for March 19. This disconnect between market pessimism and external warming data suggests 13°C may be a mispriced opportunity.

Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 19? - AI Odds Analysis

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