All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
13°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
16°C or higher
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
6°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 12:36 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Core Data Source Analysis: The resolution source, Wunderground, is owned by IBM (The Weather Company), so its data typically aligns closely with weather.com (TWC) and Google Weather. The latest TWC/Google forecast for Shanghai Pudong on March 20 predicts a high of 13°C (56°F). In contrast, AccuWeather forecasts 57°F (~13.9°C, which rounds to 14°C). Given the ownership of the resolution source, 13°C is the statistically dominant outcome. Weather Trend: Forecasts indicate clouds and rain for the day, conditions that typically suppress daily highs. This further diminishes the likelihood of 14°C+ and slightly increases the risk of 12°C. The market has correctly shifted towards 13°C, but given the specific TWC data alignment, 13°C remains slightly undervalued, while chances for 15°C+ are now negligible.
Sign up to view more information
Exotics
While weather forecasting is common, predicting the exact maximum temperature (to the degree) for a specific date and airport is a niche market. It is more specific than general forecasts like 'will it rain tomorrow', but not as absurd as 'will Jesus resurrect', placing it as a moderately exotic weather derivative.
Movers
March 16-17, 2026, the price of '13°C' surged from 17c to 39c, while '16°C or higher' crashed from 26c to 5.5c. The reason is a significant correction in meteorological models, which downgraded the expected high for Shanghai on March 20 from a balmy 15-16°C to a cooler 13-14°C, accompanied by an increased chance of rain.
March 16, 2026, the '14°C' option experienced high volatility, initially spiking to 35.5c on milder forecasts before retracing to around 25c as the cooler 13°C forecast became dominant.
