All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
17°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
21°C or higher
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
11°C or below
YesNo
18°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
11 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Consolidating latest forecasts from authoritative sources (TimeAndDate, AccuWeather, Google Weather) as of March 18, 2026, the high temperature for Shanghai Pudong on March 22 is projected to be between 16°C and 18°C (approx. 62-65°F). The market's current favorite '21°C or higher' (27.5%) drastically contradicts weather models and is significantly overvalued. Fair value is concentrated in the 16-18°C range. Additionally, the sum of all option prices approaches 190%, indicating massive mispricing.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Market prices imply '21°C or higher' is the most likely outcome (27.5%), suggesting a heatwave expectation. However, mainstream weather forecasts predict a high of only around 17°C. This >4°C discrepancy indicates market participants may be trading on incorrect information or irrational sentiment.
