The rules contain specific caveats: only 'main feed' replies count, deleted posts must survive ~5 minutes for the tracker to capture them, and the primary resolution source is a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than manual counting on X. This creates moderate resolution risk as casual observers' manual counts can easily diverge from the tracker's data.

Betting on the exact volume of social media posts by a specific billionaire over a random 48-hour window is a highly niche and novelty-driven market, primarily catering to crypto-betting culture rather than mainstream predictive topics.

The rules clearly define the token type, snapshot timing, and FDV calculation. However, within the first 24 hours of a launch, liquidity is often thin and price volatility is extreme. Relying on 'the most liquid price source' could be contentious, and short-term pricing is highly susceptible to manipulation.

Predicting the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of a specific crypto project (Printr) post-launch. This is a standard topic within crypto prediction markets, though it remains relatively niche to outside observers.

This is a highly specific market focused on a personal dispute and potential legal counter-claims regarding sexual harassment allegations, attracting mostly those who closely follow this specific niche drama.

Predicting the daily temperature of a specific city is a somewhat niche and mundane market. While it lacks the broad public attention of political elections or major sports events, it is not an entirely absurd or out-of-touch question.

May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 15.5c to 41c, and the 23°C option rose from 22.5c to a peak of 46c before settling around 39c. This is because, as the observation date approaches, weather forecast data becomes more precise, causing market funds to rapidly concentrate on the 23-24°C range that best matches short-term forecasts. May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the prices of lower temperature options such as 21°C and 20°C experienced drops of more than 10c, as the temperature forecasts increasingly confirmed warm early summer weather, ruling out the possibility of lower temperatures.

Predicting the exact lowest temperature in a specific city on a single day is a somewhat niche weather topic in prediction markets. It is not as mainstream as elections or sports, but not completely bizarre either.

Between May 2 and May 3, 2026, the price of the 17°C option surged from 6c to 98c, while the 16°C and 15°C options plummeted. This was due to the actual temperature arriving on the morning of May 3 remaining around 17°C, which ruled out the lower temperature options. Between May 1 and May 2, 2026, the 16°C option rose from 36.5c to 70.5c as earlier forecasts suggested a potential drop in temperature, making 16°C the favored minimum before actual observations corrected this.