Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1?
Weather|$10.7k Vol|
time1 days 8 hrs

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1? - AI Found +13.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.29 23:50
Top Undervalued
+13.5¢
28°C(No)
+11¢
27°C(No)
+10.6¢
25°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 1? AI analysis: • +13.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Latest weather forecasts indicate that April 1, 2026, at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will ...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Madrid on April 1?
Weather|$13.0k Vol|
time1 days 8 hrs

Highest temperature in Madrid on April 1?

Top Undervalued
+15¢
20°C(No)
+13.5¢
18°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts from Wunderground and other meteorological platforms, the high tem...
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Movers
March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of the 22°C option plummeted from 19c to 8.5c because weather forecasts adjusted towards cooler temperatures, drastically lowering the probability of higher temperatures.
AI Analysis
How will the highest temperature on April 1 at Madrid-Barajas Airport be determined using Wunderground data, and what are the specific whole-degree Celsius recording and data finalization rules?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 1?
Weather|$16.6k Vol|
time1 days 8 hrs

Highest temperature in NYC on April 1?

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
76-77°F(No)
+6.4¢
82-83°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on mainstream weather forecasts from AccuWeather and NWS, the high temperature at LaGuardia on...
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Movers
On March 29, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' surged from 9.5c to 28.5c, '69°F or below' plummeted from 25.5c to 10.5c, and '86-87°F' dropped from 18c to 2.9c. This was driven by converging meteorological model consensus on the strength of a warm air ridge, largely ruling out a cold Canadian trough (below 69°F) and extreme anomalous heat (above 86°F), causing capital to cluster in the low 80s range.
Divergence
Divergence exists. First, the total implied probability in the market is near 191%, indicating irrational retail overbuying. Second, mainstream meteorological outlets (like AccuWeather and NWS) are forecasting a high around 74-78°F for LaGuardia on April 1, whereas the highest-priced options on Polymarket are 82-83°F and 80-81°F. This shows speculative capital heavily over-betting on a strong warming anomaly, deviating from baseline deterministic weather forecasts.
AI Analysis
Based on historical weather data for LaGuardia Airport, how frequently does the high temperature on April 1st reach or exceed the 70°F to 88°F brackets?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 1?
Weather|$18.1k Vol|
time1 days 8 hrs

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 1?

Top Undervalued
+6¢
26°C(No)
+5.5¢
30°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature for Buenos Aires Ezeiza airport (SAEZ) o...
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Movers
March 29, 2026, the price of 31°C surged from 13.5c to 34c, driven by irrational buying in an illiquid market. March 29, 2026, the price of 35°C or higher spiked from 2.05c to 25.25c, similarly indicating extreme weather speculation or poor liquidity manipulation. March 29, 2026, prices for 27°C, 29°C, and 30°C also saw wild swings of over 10c, reflecting high sensitivity to shifting short-term forecasts and capital wrestling as the expiration date approaches.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing and mainstream weather forecasts. Major meteorological sources predict a high of 27°C to 29°C for Buenos Aires on April 1, yet Polymarket participants are heavily pricing in 31°C and 35°C+ (combining for nearly 60% probability), completely detaching from scientific short-term forecasting reality.
AI Analysis
How exactly will the highest temperature be determined using the Wunderground SAEZ station data for April 1, and what is the market's resolution rule if the data is revised after being finalized?
When will the DHS shutdown end?
Trump|$527.6k Vol|
time29 days 20 hrs

When will the DHS shutdown end?

Top Undervalued
+15.8¢
April 13-16(No)
+14.8¢
Before April 1(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Today is March 26, 2026, and the DHS shutdown has been ongoing since February 14, over a month ago. ...
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Rule Risk
The rules explicitly state resolution depends on the actual signing or enactment date of the bill, not the announcement date. This is a potential trap, as the lag between politicians announcing a deal and the actual legislative enactment could easily push the resolution into a subsequent date bracket.
AI Analysis
What are the upcoming congressional voting schedules and key political deadlines that could lead to the passage of the DHS funding bill in April 2026?
MLB: Outstanding DH Winner
baseball|$12.7k Vol|
time262 days 20 hrs

MLB: Outstanding DH Winner

Top Undervalued
+39.5¢
Jarren Duran(No)
+39¢
Ivan Herrera(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Shohei Ohtani remains the heavy favorite for the Outstanding DH award due to his historical dominanc...
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Divergence
The sum of implied probabilities across the prediction market options exceeds 300%, which severely diverges from the reality that only one player can win. While mainstream sports consensus views Ohtani and Alvarez as frontrunners, it is mathematically impossible for everyone in the top tier to have such highly inflated absolute probabilities.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for the 2026 MLB Outstanding DH market in ELI5 terms, especially the alphabetical last name tie-breaker and the conditions for resolving to 'Other'.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
28°C
YesNo
22.5¢
77.5¢
9¢
91¢
0¢
+13.5¢
27°C
YesNo
29¢
71¢
18¢
82¢
0¢
+11¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
Between 20:55 and 23:05 on March 29, 2026, the price of '21°C or below' plummeted from 15.5c to 4.5c, '23°C' crashed from 19.5c to 8.5c, and '31°C or higher' plunged from 16.5c to 5.05c. This was due to updated meteorological models eliminating earlier significant divergences regarding prolonged cold fronts or extreme heatwaves, converging on normal temperatures. Between 22:00 and 23:05 on March 29, 2026, the price of '26°C' surged from 19.5c to 29c as short-term weather forecasts increasingly confirmed this as the most likely high-temperature range.

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