The rules exclude regular replies but include main feed replies, relying on a specific third-party tracker for resolution. These nuanced definitions and reliance on an external tool can cause discrepancies between the tracker's data and manual counting, potentially leading to disputes.

Predicting the specific range of tweets a public figure will make in a designated 48-hour window is a highly niche, entertainment-oriented market, extremely rare in traditional forecasting or financial analysis.

April 28, 2026 12:03 - April 28, 2026 15:18, the prices for the 90-114 and 115-139 options briefly spiked from 10.5c and 2.45c to 45c and 41.85c respectively before dropping back, while the 65-89 option plummeted from 37.5c to 21.5c before recovering to 36.5c, likely due to a temporary tracker data anomaly or large market orders causing extreme spread widening. April 28, 2026 12:03 - April 28, 2026 13:08, multiple high-value options (190-214, 215-239, 240+) experienced abnormal price spikes from under 1c to 49.95c before quickly dropping back, primarily caused by illiquid order books leading to mispricing or large market buy orders (fat-finger trades).

There is a significant divergence. The prediction market currently prices the '69°F or below' option at 43c (implying a 43% probability), whereas mainstream weather services like Wunderground confidently forecast a high of only 66-67°F [3]. The market has not fully priced in the latest cool weather forecast.

Between April 28, 2026, and April 30, 2026, the price of the '23°C' option plummeted from 34.5c to 1.5c, and the '24°C' option fell from 37c to 16.5c, while the '25°C or higher' option surged from 63.5c to 81c. This sharp movement indicates that earlier forecasts of significant cooling were proven incorrect, as the actual daytime temperature on the resolution day trended much warmer, exceeding 25°C.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is uncommon in everyday public discourse, but it is a relatively established and standard weather derivative in prediction markets, giving it a moderate novelty factor.