The latest forecast from Wunderground explicitly states that the high temperature for Atlanta (KATL)...

This is a typical weather prediction market. While weather is a common topic, betting on the exact temperature range for a specific location and date is a relatively niche category compared to major elections or sports events.

From March 23 to March 25, 2026, the price of '80-81°F' surged from 20.5c to 40c as the latest Wunderground forecast locked in on 81°F, causing market capital to consolidate in the expected resolution bracket. From March 24 to March 25, 2026, the price of '82-83°F' fell from 33.5c to 21.5c as weather models stabilized, ruling out excessive warming scenarios. From March 23 to March 25, 2026, the price of '76-77°F' plummeted from 25.5c to 5c since nearing the resolution date, forecasts consistently pointed toward higher temperature ranges. From March 22, 2026 to present, the price of '71°F or below' crashed from 40.5c to near 0c as updated weather models confirmed the cold front would clear quickly, making a temperature rebound inevitable and ruling out extreme lows.

According to the latest official Wunderground forecast for the VILK station, the high temperature fo...

This is a location-specific weather prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on the exact maximum temperature for a specific date in Lucknow, India, is a relatively niche and granular market compared to mainstream elections or sports events.

March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the '36°C' option fluctuated and rose from 10.5c to 35.5c, as the official Wunderground forecast gradually adjusted the high temperature upward to 97°F (36°C) approaching the resolution date. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '34°C or below' initially spiked from 26c to 49.5c but then quickly retreated to around 23c as weather forecasts confirmed a warming trend. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of '37°C' crashed from 16.5c to around 5.5c, as major weather models previously converged on lower temperatures (around 35°C), effectively pricing out more extreme highs.

The market currently prices 35°C as the favorite (37.5c), closely followed by 36°C (30.5c). However, the sole resolution source for this market (Wunderground VILK forecast) has recently updated the high for March 26 to 97°F (36°C). This indicates that the market is lagging behind the latest official data, presenting a notable divergence.

As March 26 approaches, meteorological models have converged and revised the expected high temperatu...

From March 24 to March 25, 2026, the price of '90-91°F' plummeted from 31c to 10.5c, while '86-87°F' surged from 24c to 36.5c. This occurred because the latest weather forecasts closer to the resolution date significantly downgraded the expected high temperature, ruling out extreme heat. From March 22 to March 23, 2026, the price of '94-95°F' fluctuated violently, first spiking from ~14c to 29.5c, then falling back to 9.5c on the 23rd, indicating the market briefly overreacted to the warming trend before correcting. On March 22, 2026, the price of '79°F or below' crashed from 40.5c to 1.6c. This marks the market completely abandoning the erroneous belief that the cold front would persist until the 26th, returning to rational meteorological forecasts.

Based on the current prediction market price trends, the 'Yes' price for 6°C is currently the highes...

From March 24, 2026, 23:05 to March 25, 2026, 14:15, the price of the '4°C' option crashed from 13c to 4.5c. This was caused by weather forecasts indicating high temperatures were unlikely to be as low as 4°C as the expiration approached. From March 24, 2026, 16:35 to March 25, 2026, 06:40, the price of the '7°C' option crashed from 26c to 16.5c, likely due to forecast models briefly revising down the expected high temperatures. From March 23, 2026, 15:40 to March 24, 2026, 00:20, the price of the '4°C' option crashed from 29c to 15.5c, caused by updated weather models ruling out extreme low temperatures. From March 22, 2026, 10:25 to 18:00, the price of the '9°C or higher' option crashed from 50c to 2c. This was caused by updated weather models confirming a cold front and snow, effectively eliminating previous expectations of warmer spring weather.

As the target date (March 26) has arrived, the latest weather models and real-time data have signifi...

This is a niche market focusing on the weather of a specific city on a specific date. While weather forecasting is common, as a specific trading instrument, it is more esoteric than elections or major sports events, falling into the medium exotic category.

March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the prices of the '13°C' and '12°C' options surged from ~23c and 10.5c to 53.5c and 32.5c respectively, due to approaching resolution and updated meteorological data showing stronger-than-expected impacts from cold air or rain, heavily suppressing the forecast high. March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the '16°C or higher' option plummeted from a peak of 45c to 0.5c, '15°C' fell from 30c to 3.3c, and '14°C' dropped from 34.5c to 11.5c, as earlier warm sector forecasts were completely revised to cooler, likely wet conditions by weather stations.