All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
33°C
YesNo
34°C
YesNo
35°C
YesNo
32°C
YesNo
31°C
YesNo
29°C
YesNo
30°C
YesNo
36°C or higher
YesNo
28°C
YesNo
26°C or below
YesNo
27°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 12:32 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The resolution source, Wunderground, currently forecasts a high of 91°F for Singapore Changi Airport (WSSS) on March 20. 91°F converts to approximately 32.78°C, which typically rounds to the 33°C bucket in Wunderground's integer reporting. A slight drop to 90°F (32.2°C) would shift the result to 32°C. While the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) predicts a 'warmer and drier' second half of March with island-wide highs of 34-35°C, the coastal Changi station is historically 1-2°C cooler than inland areas. Thus, 33°C and 32°C are the most statistically probable outcomes. The market currently overprices 30°C (12.5c) and 36°C+ (8.7c), which would require either heavy all-day thunderstorms or record-breaking heat, respectively.
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Exotics
This is a typical weather prediction market. While weather is a common topic, betting on the specific maximum temperature for a specific location on a specific date falls into a relatively niche category of prediction markets, less mainstream than sports or political elections.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, significant volatility occurred across multiple options. '27°C' crashed from 11.5c to 1c, '36°C or higher' dropped from 25.5c to 8.7c, and '35°C' fell from 19c to 8c. Conversely, '32°C' surged from 16.5c to 30.5c, and '33°C' jumped from 24c to 34c. The reason is a rapid market correction from 'blind speculation' (distributing weight to extremes) to 'forecast-based' pricing as the date approached, with liquidity consolidating around the forecast consensus of 32-33°C.
Divergence
Significant source divergence exists. Google Weather (The Weather Channel) forecasts a high of only 30°C (86°F) with thunderstorms for March 20, which conflicts sharply with Polymarket's pricing (30°C is only 12.5c) and the Wunderground forecast (91°F/33°C). The market is pricing exclusively based on the resolution source (Wunderground), ignoring the potential downside risk from rain suggested by other weather models.
