All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
33°C
YesNo
29°C
YesNo
35°C or higher
YesNo
34°C
YesNo
32°C
YesNo
31°C
YesNo
30°C
YesNo
28°C
YesNo
27°C
YesNo
26°C
YesNo
25°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
12 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) and major weather models (IBM/Google, AccuWeather), the maximum temperature at Singapore Changi Airport on March 22 is forecast to be between 31°C and 34°C. MSS predicts 'more warm days' with highs up to 34°C. AccuWeather forecasts a potential heatwave reaching 36°C (98°F), while Google/IBM is more conservative at 30°C. Climatologically, the average high in March is ~32°C. The market pricing for '25°C or below' (25.5 cents) is wildly irrational, as such a low maximum temperature is a near-impossible climatological anomaly for March in Singapore (requiring a massive day-long cold surge/monsoon rain). Fair value is concentrated in the 32-34°C range.
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Divergence
Major divergence exists between market pricing and meteorological reality. The market assigns a ~25% probability to '25°C or below', which completely contradicts all mainstream weather forecasts (predicting 30-36°C). Additionally, there is model divergence: AccuWeather predicts a heatwave (36-37°C), while Google predicts cooler/rainy weather (30°C), though both are far above 25°C.
