2026-04-22 04:43 - 2026-04-22 05:48, the price of the 46-47°F option surged from 48.5c to 88.5c. This is because, as early morning of April 22 arrived in NYC, real-time temperatures and short-term forecasts solidified this range as the most probable outcome for the daily low. 2026-04-22 02:33 - 2026-04-22 05:48, the 44-45°F option rose to 36.5c before dropping to 12c, as actual temperatures stayed warmer than this lower range, shifting market confidence to 46-47°F.

The current market is significantly overpricing 15°C, 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C (Yes prices range from 25 to 30 cents each). This diverges sharply from all mainstream weather forecasts, which consistently predict a low temperature between 12°C and 14°C.

Tesla's earnings results will have a direct and significant impact on TSLA's stock price. A noticeable beat or miss on non-GAAP EPS can lead to substantial volatility in the stock (Score 4). Because Tesla holds a notable weight in the Nasdaq 100, significant movements in its share price will also generate minor intraday impacts on the index (Score 2).

April 19, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 34c to 17c (currently 18c), as pessimistic sentiment regarding Tesla missing earnings expectations intensified with the approaching earnings date, leading investors to dump Yes shares to avoid risk. April 15, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 45.5c to 34.5c, as the market further priced in the earnings downside risks brought by weak delivery data approaching the earnings date. April 11, 2026 - April 12, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 63c to 38c, as the market digested the dismal delivery data and institutions significantly lowered their earnings expectations.