All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
28°C
YesNo
29°C
YesNo
30°C
YesNo
31°C or higher
YesNo
AI Insights:
5 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
It is currently 9:17 PM Taipei time on March 18, and the recording period for the day has concluded. Based on market pricing (28°C trading above 99c) and intraday price action (locking in the win during the afternoon), it is certain that the maximum temperature peaked within the 28.0°C to 28.9°C range. With temperatures falling at night, higher outcomes are impossible. The event is effectively resolved, pending only final official data confirmation.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
There are two main risks: 1. **Source Specificity**: The rule strictly mandates the Taipei Station (ID 4669). Generic weather apps often use data from Songshan Airport or other stations, potentially misleading users. 2. **Ambiguous Bin Definitions**: The prompt limits options to integers (e.g., '27°C') without explicitly defining if this implies rounding (26.5-27.4) or flooring (27.0-27.9). Since the source reports to one decimal place, a reading on the boundary (e.g., 27.5°C) could cause resolution disputes.
Movers
From the early morning to the afternoon of March 18, 2026 (Taipei time), the price of the '28°C' option surged from approximately 39c to 99c, while '29°C' crashed from 24c to near zero. This was driven by real-time temperature data confirming the high peaked and plateaued in the 28°C range, eliminating the uncertainty regarding a potential rise to 29°C or higher.
From Mar 17, 23:15 to Mar 18, 00:20, the price of '28°C' skyrocketed from 1c to 38c, alongside a surge in '27°C'. This was caused by updated CWA forecasts confirming the anticipated cold front was weaker than expected, predicting sunny weather with a high of 28°C, which crushed the previously favored cooler range (22-25°C).
