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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
24°C
YesNo
23°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
22°C
YesNo
25°C
YesNo
26°C
YesNo
29°C or higher
YesNo
19°C or below
YesNo
27°C
YesNo
28°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
17 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The official CWA forecast for Taipei on March 19 indicates a temperature range of 19-23°C (with some text reports citing 23-25°C for the north), noting an approaching front. Google Weather is conservative at 21°C, while AccuWeather predicts 24°C. Given the market massively overprices the 20-22°C range (sum > 110%), fair value is adjusted towards the 22-23°C pivot, acknowledging 21°C potential. 23°C, being the upper bound of the official range and the specific forecast of WeatherBug, is significantly undervalued at 9.5c.
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Movers
On the evening of March 17, 2026 (UTC), prices for 20°C, 21°C, and 22°C surged collectively, e.g., 21°C jumped from 16c to 42.5c. This was driven by a liquidity crunch and updated meteorological data confirming the front's timing, forcing capital to consolidate heavily in the middle range (20-22°C).
On the evening of March 16, '19°C or below' crashed from 40.5c to 7.5c. The reason was a correction of early speculative bets on a strong cold front arriving early; forecasts clarified that daytime temperatures would not drop that drastically.
Divergence
Market pricing diverges from mainstream forecasts. The market is extremely bearish, pushing the implied probability of 20-22°C to over 110%, betting heavily on rain/cooling. However, the CWA official forecast range tops out at 23°C, WeatherBug predicts 23°C, and AccuWeather predicts 24°C. The market assigns only ~9.5% probability to 23°C, significantly underestimating the scenario where the front arrives slightly later, allowing for higher temperatures.
