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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
22°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
23°C
YesNo
26°C or higher
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
24°C
YesNo
18°C
YesNo
25°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
16°C or below
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the latest forecast from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA), the resolution source, Taipei's weather on March 21 will be cloudy with temperatures ranging from 18-22°C. This official forecast directly contradicts the market's current fervent betting on higher temperatures (23°C+). The most probable maximum temperature lies within the 20-22°C range, with 19°C and 18°C also being plausible. The market is currently in a state of extreme irrational 'over-betting' (sum of Yes prices approaches 200c), causing options like 23°C and 24°C—which are outside the forecasted range—to be massively overvalued (combined implied probability >50%). Therefore, fair value should revert to the CWA's core forecasted range (19-22°C).
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Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of the 22°C option skyrocketed from ~8c to ~41c (peaking at 48.5c), with similar massive surges (>20c) seen in the 20°C, 21°C, 23°C, and 24°C options. The reason is a significant shift in weather forecast models from a previous 'Rain/19°C' scenario to a warmer 'Cloudy/18-22°C' outlook. This triggered a speculative buying frenzy across all warmer-range options, resulting in the current massively inflated total price premium.
Divergence
The market significantly diverges from mainstream forecasts. While the official CWA forecast predicts a high of 22°C, market prices imply a combined probability of over 50% for temperatures reaching 23°C or 24°C (both priced at ~27c). The market appears to be betting on hotter weather than forecasted and has failed to rationally distribute probabilities for mutually exclusive events (total probability approaches 200%), indicating extreme irrational exuberance.
