According to authoritative weather sources (Wunderground/The Weather Channel/Google Weather), the la...

This is a niche market focusing on the weather of a specific city on a specific date. While weather forecasting is common, as a specific trading instrument, it is more esoteric than elections or major sports events, falling into the medium exotic category.

On March 23, 2026 (current day), the price of '16°C or higher' experienced significant volatility, spiking from ~39c in the morning to 45c before retracing to 34.5c in the afternoon. Concurrently, the '15°C' and '14°C' options have both rallied steadily over the last 24 hours, rising from ~15c and ~17c to ~30c and ~31.5c respectively. This volatility is driven by frequent weather model updates as the target date (March 26) approaches; minor shifts in the timing of expected rainfall are causing forecasts to oscillate between the warmer sector (16°C+) and cooler, rain-suppressed outcomes (14-15°C).

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media and weather apps (e.g., Google Weather, TimeAndDate) explicitly forecast a high of 16°C (61°F) for the day. However, the prediction market is skewing towards cooler outcomes, assigning a combined probability of over 60% to '15°C' and '14°C', while only giving the nominal forecast value '16°C+' about 35%. This likely reflects professional traders hedging against Haneda Airport's (RJTT) microclimate (cooling sea breeze effect).

According to the latest official Wunderground forecast for the VILK station, the high temperature fo...

This is a location-specific weather prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on the exact maximum temperature for a specific date in Lucknow, India, is a relatively niche and granular market compared to mainstream elections or sports events.

March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the '36°C' option fluctuated and rose from 10.5c to 35.5c, as the official Wunderground forecast gradually adjusted the high temperature upward to 97°F (36°C) approaching the resolution date. March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of '34°C or below' initially spiked from 26c to 49.5c but then quickly retreated to around 23c as weather forecasts confirmed a warming trend. March 22, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of '37°C' crashed from 16.5c to around 5.5c, as major weather models previously converged on lower temperatures (around 35°C), effectively pricing out more extreme highs.

The market currently prices 35°C as the favorite (37.5c), closely followed by 36°C (30.5c). However, the sole resolution source for this market (Wunderground VILK forecast) has recently updated the high for March 26 to 97°F (36°C). This indicates that the market is lagging behind the latest official data, presenting a notable divergence.

Based on the latest meteorological models (updated Mar 23), the forecast for Dallas on March 26 has ...

From March 22 to March 23, 2026, the price of '94-95°F' fluctuated violently, first spiking from ~14c to 29.5c, then falling back to 9.5c on the 23rd, indicating the market briefly overreacted to the warming trend before correcting. On March 22, 2026, the price of '79°F or below' crashed from 40.5c to 1.6c. This marks the market completely abandoning the erroneous belief that the cold front would persist until the 26th, returning to rational meteorological forecasts.

Consolidating multiple meteorological sources (Google Weather, Weather25, AccuWeather), the forecast...

From March 22, 2026, 10:25 to 12:35, the price of the '9°C or higher' option crashed from 50c to 2c. This was caused by updated weather models confirming a cold front and snow, effectively eliminating previous expectations of warmer spring weather.

While the market aligns with mainstream views on the 'central tendency' (4-5°C), there is significant divergence on 'tail risk'. The market pricing implies a >40% probability of temperatures exceeding 5°C (6, 7, 8, 9+), whereas forecasts of 'heavy snow' and 'high of 4°C' suggest the actual probability is likely below 10%.

According to the latest hourly forecast from Wunderground (the resolution source), the high temperat...

This is a typical weather prediction market. While weather is a common topic, betting on the exact temperature range for a specific location and date is a relatively niche category compared to major elections or sports events.

From March 23, 2026 to present, the price of '80-81°F' dropped from 34c to 21c as market confidence dispersed, with capital flowing towards higher temperature options (82-83°F) aligned with the Wunderground 83°F forecast or the more conservative 78-79°F. On March 22, 2026, the price of '71°F or below' crashed from 40.5c to 2c as updated weather models confirmed the cold front would clear quickly, making a temperature rebound inevitable and ruling out extreme lows.

Significant divergence exists. The resolution source, Wunderground, currently forecasts a high of 83°F for Thursday, corresponding to the '82-83°F' option. However, the prediction market's price leader is '78-79°F' (24.5c), with significant volume on '80-81°F'. This suggests market participants are likely influenced by conflicting data from AccuWeather (forecasting 66°F) or 11Alive (forecasting 78°F), or are reacting sluggishly to NWS guidance about heat arriving Friday, thus failing to fully price in the resolution source's aggressive warmup forecast.