Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a niche quantitative prediction market category. While not a mainstream macroeconomic event, it is a common meteorological betting topic governed by objective data.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026: The price for 23°C surged from 10.5c to 30c before settling at 24.5c, the 22°C option rose from 21.5c to 33c before correcting to 25.5c, while the 20°C option plummeted from 19.55c to 8.45c. This was caused by short-term weather forecasting models revising the maximum temperature expectation upwards for Istanbul Airport during the specified timeframe.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of 21°C climbed from 13.5c to 30c, 22°C surged from 21c to 43c, while 23°C dropped from 30c to 16c. This occurred because as the date approached, weather forecast data became more precise, adjusting the expected high temperatures down from around 73°F to the 70°F-71°F range, thereby significantly increasing the probabilities for 21°C and 22°C.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of the 64-65°F option surged from 19.5c to 44.5c, while the '68°F or higher' option retreated to 19c after briefly hitting 38c. This was driven by converging meteorological models indicating that the peak of the weekend heat wave will arrive after Sunday, making May 9 a transitional warming day and solidifying the probability of a 64-65°F high.

While weather is a standard prediction market topic, the general public outside the local area would rarely try to predict the exact high temperature in Chengdu on a specific date before seeing this market, giving it moderate novelty.

Between 08:28 and 09:33 on May 9, 2026, the Yes price for 29°C skyrocketed from 6c to 98.35c, while the Yes price for 28°C crashed from 88c to 0.05c. This is because the actual daily high temperature data was released, confirming 29°C, causing the market to rapidly adjust to the winning option. Between May 7 and May 8, 2026, the Yes price for 28°C fluctuated between 21c and 37.5c, and the Yes price for 29°C fluctuated between 18c and 27c. This was due to weather forecast models continuously updating as the resolution date approached, narrowing the expected temperature to the 28°C-29°C range.

While weather prediction is a known niche in prediction markets, guessing the exact high temperature of a specific city on a random day is quite obscure and not something the general public naturally thinks about.

May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of the 23°C option surged from 21c to a peak of 42c, and the 24°C option rose from 20.5c to 38c. This was driven by weather models converging highly on the 23-24°C range as the target date approached. May 7, 2026, the 27°C or higher option plummeted from 25.5c to 2.2c, as updated forecasts eliminated the tail risk of an extreme unseasonal heatwave.