There is a moderate divergence. General public weather forecasts (such as Google and AccuWeather) indicate a maximum temperature of around 30°C to 33°C for April 16, whereas prediction market traders are heavily betting on 34°C to 36°C. This usually occurs because specialized traders use more precise aviation meteorological models, or they account for the specific local heat island effect at the airport tarmac (LLBG), where concrete and asphalt can cause the NOAA thermometer to record higher readings than general city forecasts.