All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
22°C
YesNo
18°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
23°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
24°C
YesNo
25°C or higher
YesNo
15°C or below
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 18:26 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the latest authoritative forecast from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS), the high temperature in Tel Aviv on March 19 is expected to be only 17°C, accompanied by thunderstorms, which will significantly suppress temperatures. Google Weather (The Weather Channel) aligns closely, predicting a high of 18°C. However, the prediction market is severely overpricing warmer outcomes, positioning 21°C as the favorite (35%) and 22°C at 19%, creating a massive divergence from the local consensus of a cool, rainy day (17-18°C). Fair value should be heavily corrected towards the 17°C-19°C range, with options above 20°C holding minimal value.
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Movers
From March 16 to March 17, 2026, the price of the '20°C' option crashed from 31c to 15.5c as high-resolution models (like the local IMS) confirmed rain and cold air, prompting a sell-off of warmer options.
On March 16, 2026, the price of the '21°C' option saw high volatility, swinging between 40c and 25c-35c, reflecting a tug-of-war between commercial app forecasts (warmer) and local meteorological data (cooler).
From March 15 to March 17, 2026, the price of the '25°C or higher' option collapsed from 26c to under 2c, as forecasts conclusively eliminated any chance of an extreme heat event.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market prices 21°C as the most likely outcome (35c), likely anchoring to certain commercial weather apps (like AccuWeather) which can skew high. However, the official Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) explicitly forecasts a high of 17°C, and Google/IBM models predict 18°C. The market is pricing the event a full 3-4°C warmer than authoritative forecasts, indicating a lag in pricing the cooling effect of the storm.
