All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
17°C or below
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
18°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
22°C
YesNo
23°C
YesNo
24°C
YesNo
27°C or higher
YesNo
25°C
YesNo
26°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although Polymarket traders are heavily betting on 21°C (42c) and 20°C (35.5c), this strongly contradicts major weather forecasts. The Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) explicitly predicts 'unseasonably low temperatures' for March 20, with highs of only 10-14°C. The resolution source, Wunderground (TWC), currently forecasts 66°F (~19°C). The market is likely misled by Wednesday's (18th) warm 23°C temperatures or is reacting to outdated warm model runs. Given IMS's authority (favoring <17°C) and TWC's data (favoring 19°C), fair value is concentrated in 19°C and below.
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Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '21°C' spiked from 16.5c to 42c, with '20°C' also remaining high, likely because traders confused Wednesday's (18th) warmth with Friday's (20th) cold front or reacted to extreme weather model runs.
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '17°C or below' crashed from 40.5c to 4.5c, despite this aligning best with the official IMS forecast of 10-14°C for Friday, indicating an irrational panic sell-off in the market.
Divergence
Extreme divergence. Market pricing implies a ~77% probability of 20°C or 21°C, whereas the authoritative meteorological service (IMS) predicts a high of only 14°C, and Wunderground/TWC predicts 19°C. The market is completely ignoring the incoming sharp temperature drop.
