All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
18°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
14°C or below
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
22°C
YesNo
23°C
YesNo
24°C or higher
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the latest forecasts, Tel Aviv (Ben Gurion Airport) will experience significant cooling and rain on Saturday, March 21. The Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) predicts a maximum temperature of only 14°C. The Weather Channel (TWC/Wunderground), the parent company of the resolution source, currently forecasts a high of 16°C. The market is currently severely overpricing the 18°C-19°C range (combined price >57c), likely because traders are extrapolating the current warm weather (~23°C on the 18th) to the weekend, ignoring the incoming cold front. Fair value should be highly concentrated in the 14°C-16°C range.
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Movers
From March 17, 2026, to March 18, 2026, the price of the 18°C option surged from 17.5c to 36.5c (later pulling back to 32.5c), and the 19°C option rose from 18c to 30.5c. Reason: This is likely irrational retail behavior. Since the actual temperature on March 18 was warm (~23°C), traders likely erroneously ignored the forecast for a sharp temperature drop (to 14-16°C) due to a cold front passing through over the weekend, blindly chasing the median temperature options.
Divergence
There is a severe divergence between market pricing and meteorological forecasts. Polymarket prices imply the most likely temperature on March 21 is 18°C-19°C (probability >57%). However, mainstream weather sources (IMS and Wunderground/TWC) both predict rain and significant cooling, with IMS forecasting a high of 14°C and Wunderground forecasting 16°C. The market is completely failing to price in the impact of the incoming cold air.
