All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
18°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
22°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
13°C or below
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
21°C
YesNo
23°C or higher
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
6 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) and The Weather Channel (TWC) indicate a sharp cooling trend following the March 18th heatwave, driven by an incoming cold front with rain. IMS explicitly predicts a maximum temperature of 14°C for Tel Aviv/Ben Gurion Airport on March 22, while TWC predicts 16°C (61°F). The current market pricing favors 17-20°C, likely relying on climatological averages or stale data, ignoring the specific cold weather system. Given the expected rain and cloud cover, the actual temperature is highly likely to land in the 14-15°C range, making the lower temperature options significantly undervalued.
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Exotics
For the general public, the exact max temperature of a specific city on a specific day is a relatively niche topic, falling under typical 'weather derivatives'. While common sense for locals, as a global prediction market topic, it is moderately exotic—not as mainstream as elections or sports, but not as absurd as 'will a celebrity wear red shoes'.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market prices imply the most likely high temperature on March 22 is 18°C, whereas the authoritative meteorological source (IMS) forecasts a high of only 14°C. The market is pricing a warm day while ignoring the forecast of a strong cold front and storms that will drastically lower temperatures.
