How will Polymarket determine the winning temperature bracket for Tel Aviv on May 24, and what happens if NOAA revises the data after finalization?

AI-powered analysis for: How will Polymarket determine the winning temperature bracket for Tel Aviv on May 24, and what happens if NOAA revises the data after finalization?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

At what exact time will NOAA finalize the May 24th hourly temperature data for Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG), allowing this market to resolve?

AI-powered analysis for: At what exact time will NOAA finalize the May 24th hourly temperature data for Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG), allowing this market to resolve?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Is the NOAA weather timeseries website for Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) currently updating normally, or is there a risk of recent data outages?

AI-powered analysis for: Is the NOAA weather timeseries website for Ben Gurion Airport (LLBG) currently updating normally, or is there a risk of recent data outages?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Historically, what is the actual occurrence frequency of peak temperatures hitting 30°C or higher in Tel Aviv during late May?

AI-powered analysis for: Historically, what is the actual occurrence frequency of peak temperatures hitting 30°C or higher in Tel Aviv during late May?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the latest forecasts for critical meteorological variables (e.g., heatwaves, cloud cover) affecting Tel Aviv's peak temperature on May 24?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the latest forecasts for critical meteorological variables (e.g., heatwaves, cloud cover) affecting Tel Aviv's peak temperature on May 24?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Have there been past Polymarket weather disputes regarding NOAA's Celsius rounding rules (e.g., whole degrees like 9°C), and how were they resolved?

AI-powered analysis for: Have there been past Polymarket weather disputes regarding NOAA's Celsius rounding rules (e.g., whole degrees like 9°C), and how were they resolved?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How can we translate the current odds for the '26°C' option into an intuitive probability metaphor?

AI-powered analysis for: How can we translate the current odds for the '26°C' option into an intuitive probability metaphor?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What upcoming updates from meteorological platforms in the next 48 hours could act as catalysts for severe odds volatility across the temperature brackets?

AI-powered analysis for: What upcoming updates from meteorological platforms in the next 48 hours could act as catalysts for severe odds volatility across the temperature brackets?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the current low market volume of ~$107, what is the estimated slippage risk for a $1,000 bet on the '28°C' bracket?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the current low market volume of ~$107, what is the estimated slippage risk for a $1,000 bet on the '28°C' bracket?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Is the peak temperature at LLBG purely predictable 48 hours in advance, or are there random micro-climate variables that could cause deviations?

AI-powered analysis for: Is the peak temperature at LLBG purely predictable 48 hours in advance, or are there random micro-climate variables that could cause deviations?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

With only 2 days left until the May 24 resolution, which temperature bracket benefits most from time decay (Theta) as weather forecasts become more certain?

AI-powered analysis for: With only 2 days left until the May 24 resolution, which temperature bracket benefits most from time decay (Theta) as weather forecasts become more certain?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If an unexpected cold front hits Tel Aviv on May 24, what is the theoretical support price for the '20°C or below' bracket in the worst-case scenario?

AI-powered analysis for: If an unexpected cold front hits Tel Aviv on May 24, what is the theoretical support price for the '20°C or below' bracket in the worst-case scenario?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the core disagreements in the Polymarket comment section or Discord regarding the final temperature projection for Tel Aviv on May 24?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the core disagreements in the Polymarket comment section or Discord regarding the final temperature projection for Tel Aviv on May 24?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Considering the low liquidity, what would be the actual net ROI of a $500 investment in the '25°C' option after deducting estimated Gas fees?

AI-powered analysis for: Considering the low liquidity, what would be the actual net ROI of a $500 investment in the '25°C' option after deducting estimated Gas fees?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on a high confidence level in local weather forecasts predicting a '26°C-28°C' range, what portfolio allocation percentage does the Kelly criterion suggest?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on a high confidence level in local weather forecasts predicting a '26°C-28°C' range, what portfolio allocation percentage does the Kelly criterion suggest?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What specific weather forecast change (e.g., mainstream forecast peak dropping below 23°C) should act as a strict stop-loss red line for holding the '25°C' option?

AI-powered analysis for: What specific weather forecast change (e.g., mainstream forecast peak dropping below 23°C) should act as a strict stop-loss red line for holding the '25°C' option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How can one use a 'Stink Bid' strategy to place extremely low bids on outlier brackets like '30°C or higher' to catch panic selling from sudden weather shifts?

AI-powered analysis for: How can one use a 'Stink Bid' strategy to place extremely low bids on outlier brackets like '30°C or higher' to catch panic selling from sudden weather shifts?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Can you recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or sources dedicated to analyzing Middle Eastern meteorological data or extreme weather patterns?

AI-powered analysis for: Can you recommend 3 high-quality Twitter accounts or sources dedicated to analyzing Middle Eastern meteorological data or extreme weather patterns?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Can you generate a brief one-page trading plan for the '29°C' option, including entry rationale based on weather models, target odds, and invalidation conditions?

AI-powered analysis for: Can you generate a brief one-page trading plan for the '29°C' option, including entry rationale based on weather models, target odds, and invalidation conditions?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

For micro-capital users, which underdog, high-payout temperature bracket is best suited for a '$10 lottery ticket' strategy in this Tel Aviv weather market?

AI-powered analysis for: For micro-capital users, which underdog, high-payout temperature bracket is best suited for a '$10 lottery ticket' strategy in this Tel Aviv weather market?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 24?

Weather|$12.5k Vol|

21 hrs 35 mins

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 24? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 2 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+3.5¢

26°C(No)

+2.7¢

28°C(Yes)

+2.5¢

24°C(No)

Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 24? AI analysis: • +3.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest weather forecast updates for Tel Aviv (Ben Gurion Airport) on May 24, expected m...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

26°C

YesNo

38.5¢

61.5¢

35¢

65¢

0¢

+3.5¢

28°C

YesNo

1.3¢

98.7¢

4¢

96¢

+2.7¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026: The price of the 25°C option surged from 15.5c to 39c. This was driven by the latest short-term weather forecasts nearing the resolution date, which indicated a slightly cooler peak temperature for Tel Aviv, prompting capital to flow into the 25°C bracket. May 19, 2026 - May 21, 2026: The market remained stable with no extreme price movements as participants steadily priced in the converging weather forecasts for the target date.