Over the past 10 years, what is the historical frequency of the highest temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport falling into each specific range (e.g., 15°C, 20°C, 23°C+) on April 6th?

AI-powered analysis for: Over the past 10 years, what is the historical frequency of the highest temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport falling into each specific range (e.g., 15°C, 20°C, 23°C+) on April 6th?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How exactly is the highest temperature determined on Wunderground for Tokyo Haneda Airport on April 6, and what happens to the resolution if the data is revised later?

AI-powered analysis for: How exactly is the highest temperature determined on Wunderground for Tokyo Haneda Airport on April 6, and what happens to the resolution if the data is revised later?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How reliable is the Wunderground RJTT station data, and has it ever stopped updating or shown anomalies on specific days in the past?

AI-powered analysis for: How reliable is the Wunderground RJTT station data, and has it ever stopped updating or shown anomalies on specific days in the past?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on current meteorological forecasts, what are the top opposing arguments for why the temperature on April 6 in Tokyo might unexpectedly drop below 13°C or soar above 23°C?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on current meteorological forecasts, what are the top opposing arguments for why the temperature on April 6 in Tokyo might unexpectedly drop below 13°C or soar above 23°C?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

At what exact time (in UTC/local time) does Wunderground finalize and lock in the daily high temperature data for Tokyo Haneda Airport on April 6?

AI-powered analysis for: At what exact time (in UTC/local time) does Wunderground finalize and lock in the daily high temperature data for Tokyo Haneda Airport on April 6?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What upcoming weather forecast model updates or weather fronts could drastically shift the temperature predictions for Tokyo on April 6 within the next 48 hours?

AI-powered analysis for: What upcoming weather forecast model updates or weather fronts could drastically shift the temperature predictions for Tokyo on April 6 within the next 48 hours?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the extremely low volume (~$29), what is the slippage risk if I want to place a $100 bet on the '20°C' or '21°C' option for Tokyo's temperature?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the extremely low volume (~$29), what is the slippage risk if I want to place a $100 bet on the '20°C' or '21°C' option for Tokyo's temperature?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How predictable is Tokyo's microclimate at Haneda Airport in early April, and is it highly susceptible to random unpredictable oceanic winds?

AI-powered analysis for: How predictable is Tokyo's microclimate at Haneda Airport in early April, and is it highly susceptible to random unpredictable oceanic winds?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Which temperature option benefits the most from time decay (Theta) as we get closer to April 6, assuming no extreme weather anomalies are forecasted?

AI-powered analysis for: Which temperature option benefits the most from time decay (Theta) as we get closer to April 6, assuming no extreme weather anomalies are forecasted?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If a severe cold front unexpectedly hits Tokyo on April 6, logically projecting from meteorological data, what is the extreme bottom temperature range we can expect at Haneda Airport?

AI-powered analysis for: If a severe cold front unexpectedly hits Tokyo on April 6, logically projecting from meteorological data, what is the extreme bottom temperature range we can expect at Haneda Airport?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on current weather forecasts and bid-ask spreads, at what price should I place a limit order for the most likely temperature range (e.g., 16°C-18°C) to get filled easily without losing edge?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on current weather forecasts and bid-ask spreads, at what price should I place a limit order for the most likely temperature range (e.g., 16°C-18°C) to get filled easily without losing edge?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How can I deploy extremely low bids (Stink Bids) on outlier options like '13°C or below' or '23°C or higher' in this thin order book to catch sudden weather forecast changes?

AI-powered analysis for: How can I deploy extremely low bids (Stink Bids) on outlier options like '13°C or below' or '23°C or higher' in this thin order book to catch sudden weather forecast changes?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What specific change in the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) or mainstream weather models should trigger an immediate stop-loss for current bets on this market?

AI-powered analysis for: What specific change in the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) or mainstream weather models should trigger an immediate stop-loss for current bets on this market?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Can you generate a one-page trading plan for betting on Tokyo's April 6 temperature, including weather model rationale, target temperature ranges, and invalidation criteria?

AI-powered analysis for: Can you generate a one-page trading plan for betting on Tokyo's April 6 temperature, including weather model rationale, target temperature ranges, and invalidation criteria?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are 3 highly accurate weather forecasting websites, professional meteorological data sources, or Twitter accounts dedicated to tracking Tokyo Haneda Airport's microclimate?

AI-powered analysis for: What are 3 highly accurate weather forecasting websites, professional meteorological data sources, or Twitter accounts dedicated to tracking Tokyo Haneda Airport's microclimate?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the confidence level of current ECMWF or GFS weather models for Tokyo, what percentage of my bankroll should I allocate to the favored temperature bracket using the Kelly criterion?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the confidence level of current ECMWF or GFS weather models for Tokyo, what percentage of my bankroll should I allocate to the favored temperature bracket using the Kelly criterion?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the core disagreements in the prediction community regarding the weather forecast models (e.g., GFS vs. ECMWF divergence) for Tokyo on April 6?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the core disagreements in the prediction community regarding the weather forecast models (e.g., GFS vs. ECMWF divergence) for Tokyo on April 6?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Have there been any past Polymarket disputes and final rulings regarding Wunderground's temperature rounding rules (whole degrees Celsius) or data source delays?

AI-powered analysis for: Have there been any past Polymarket disputes and final rulings regarding Wunderground's temperature rounding rules (whole degrees Celsius) or data source delays?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What other highly correlated prediction markets (e.g., temperature or rainfall in other Japanese cities) can be used to construct a combined weather betting portfolio?

AI-powered analysis for: What other highly correlated prediction markets (e.g., temperature or rainfall in other Japanese cities) can be used to construct a combined weather betting portfolio?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

For micro-capital users, which extremely cold or extremely hot high-payout 'lottery ticket' option offers the best risk-reward play in this Tokyo temperature market?

AI-powered analysis for: For micro-capital users, which extremely cold or extremely hot high-payout 'lottery ticket' option offers the best risk-reward play in this Tokyo temperature market?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 6?

Weather|$17.0k Vol|

1 days 8 hrs

Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 6? - AI Found +17.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.03 14:35

Top Undervalued

+17.5¢

23°C or higher(No)

+7.4¢

19°C(Yes)

+6¢

20°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 6? AI analysis: • +17.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

With only 3 days left until the resolution date, weather forecasting models have stabilized. Current...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

23°C or higher

YesNo

27.5¢

72.5¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+17.5¢

19°C

YesNo

4.55¢

95.45¢

12¢

88¢

+7.4¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 15.5c to 30.5c, and the 22°C option rose from 16.5c to 29c, as short-term high-resolution weather models adjusted the expected core temperatures upwards. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the price of the '23°C or higher' option plunged from 30c to 14c, because updated forecasts showed increased cloud cover, reducing the likelihood of extreme afternoon heat. In the past 3 days, no other option has seen a price movement of more than 10 cents. The market's expectation for the temperature has remained stable in line with weather forecasts.