[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket event page to analyze the current order book depth given the low volume ($20.0), and compare the implied probabilities of options like '15°C' or '17°C' against the latest 4-day weather forecasts from JMA and AccuWeather.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket event page to analyze the current order book depth given the low volume ($20.0), and compare the implied probabilities of options like '15°C' or '17°C' against the latest 4-day weather forecasts from JMA and AccuWeather.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing (Weather Models): Search for the latest 10-day forecast for 'Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT)' on reliable meteorological sites (JMA, Weather.com, ECMWF) to identify the consensus predicted high temperature for March 19.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing (Weather Models): Search for the latest 10-day forecast for 'Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT)' on reliable meteorological sites (JMA, Weather.com, ECMWF) to identify the consensus predicted high temperature for March 19.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain the 'whole degrees' resolution rule for Wunderground. If the raw data shows 16.9°C, does Wunderground display it as 16°C or 17°C, and how does this rounding affect the winning option?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain the 'whole degrees' resolution rule for Wunderground. If the raw data shows 16.9°C, does Wunderground display it as 16°C or 17°C, and how does this rounding affect the winning option?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Data Source Reliability Check: Verify the specific Wunderground URL for Tokyo Haneda (RJTT) to ensure the station is currently reporting data consistently and hasn't had recent outages.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Data Source Reliability Check: Verify the specific Wunderground URL for Tokyo Haneda (RJTT) to ensure the station is currently reporting data consistently and hasn't had recent outages.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency Statistics: Retrieve the actual recorded high temperatures at Tokyo Haneda Airport on March 19th for the past 5 years (2021-2025) to identify the historical baseline range.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency Statistics: Retrieve the actual recorded high temperatures at Tokyo Haneda Airport on March 19th for the past 5 years (2021-2025) to identify the historical baseline range.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Variables Confirmation: Confirm specific weather variables for March 19 (e.g., cloud cover, rain probability, wind direction) that could suppress the daily high temperature below the model average.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Variables Confirmation: Confirm specific weather variables for March 19 (e.g., cloud cover, rain probability, wind direction) that could suppress the daily high temperature below the model average.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Intuitive Odds Translation: Translate the current Polymarket odds for the top 3 temperature buckets (e.g., 17°C, 19°C) into percentage probabilities and check if they align with the confidence levels of meteorological models.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Intuitive Odds Translation: Translate the current Polymarket odds for the top 3 temperature buckets (e.g., 17°C, 19°C) into percentage probabilities and check if they align with the confidence levels of meteorological models.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Confirm exactly when the Wunderground daily summary for Haneda is typically finalized relative to the market End Time (March 19, 12:00 UTC / 21:00 JST) to avoid premature resolution disputes.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key Timeline Check: Confirm exactly when the Wunderground daily summary for Haneda is typically finalized relative to the market End Time (March 19, 12:00 UTC / 21:00 JST) to avoid premature resolution disputes.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Identify the specific release times for the next major GFS and ECMWF model runs to predict when the market odds might shift significantly in the next 24 hours.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Identify the specific release times for the next major GFS and ECMWF model runs to predict when the market odds might shift significantly in the next 24 hours.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment: Given the extremely low volume ($20.0), assess the slippage risk for a $50 position and determine if limit orders are strictly necessary over market orders.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment: Given the extremely low volume ($20.0), assess the slippage risk for a $50 position and determine if limit orders are strictly necessary over market orders.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal Comparison: Compare the 'Forecast vs. Actual' performance of Wunderground for Tokyo over the last 3 days to see if the platform has a bias (e.g., consistently forecasting 1°C higher than actuals).

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal Comparison: Compare the 'Forecast vs. Actual' performance of Wunderground for Tokyo over the last 3 days to see if the platform has a bias (e.g., consistently forecasting 1°C higher than actuals).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Analyze how the probability distribution (bell curve) of temperature forecasts narrows as we approach March 19, and determine if buying 'No' on outlier temperatures is a safer Theta play.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Analyze how the probability distribution (bell curve) of temperature forecasts narrows as we approach March 19, and determine if buying 'No' on outlier temperatures is a safer Theta play.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Evaluate if the market is accurately pricing the 'Tail Risk' (e.g., 21°C) given the current stability of the weather pattern, or if these options are overpriced lottery tickets.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Evaluate if the market is accurately pricing the 'Tail Risk' (e.g., 21°C) given the current stability of the weather pattern, or if these options are overpriced lottery tickets.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Community Disagreement Summary: Check discussion forums or Discord to see if there is a debate regarding the 'Heat Island Effect' at Haneda Airport vs. the city center and how it affects the resolution.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Community Disagreement Summary: Check discussion forums or Discord to see if there is a debate regarding the 'Heat Island Effect' at Haneda Airport vs. the city center and how it affects the resolution.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Fair Value Calculation: Based on the weighted average of the top 3 weather models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF, ICON), calculate the 'Fair Value' probability for the most likely temperature bucket (e.g., 17°C).

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Fair Value Calculation: Based on the weighted average of the top 3 weather models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF, ICON), calculate the 'Fair Value' probability for the most likely temperature bucket (e.g., 17°C).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Optimal Limit Order Placement: Due to the wide bid-ask spread in this illiquid market, determine the optimal price levels to place 'Bid' orders for the 15°C-18°C range to capture value from impatient sellers.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Optimal Limit Order Placement: Due to the wide bid-ask spread in this illiquid market, determine the optimal price levels to place 'Bid' orders for the 15°C-18°C range to capture value from impatient sellers.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Define a specific condition based on updated forecasts (e.g., 'If JMA predicts rain on March 19'), which would trigger an immediate exit of a 'High Temperature' position.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Define a specific condition based on updated forecasts (e.g., 'If JMA predicts rain on March 19'), which would trigger an immediate exit of a 'High Temperature' position.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Assuming a forecast confidence of 70% for a specific temperature range, use the Kelly Criterion to suggest a maximum portfolio allocation for this specific event.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Assuming a forecast confidence of 70% for a specific temperature range, use the Kelly Criterion to suggest a maximum portfolio allocation for this specific event.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Low Liquidity 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Calculate a 'Stink Bid' price for adjacent temperature buckets (e.g., 16°C and 18°C if the forecast is 17°C) to catch sudden liquidity dumps if the forecast shifts slightly.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] Low Liquidity 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Calculate a 'Stink Bid' price for adjacent temperature buckets (e.g., 16°C and 18°C if the forecast is 17°C) to catch sudden liquidity dumps if the forecast shifts slightly.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize the weather model consensus, Wunderground station behavior, and liquidity risks into a concise trading plan with entry price, target exit, and invalidation criteria.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Decision & Action] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize the weather model consensus, Wunderground station behavior, and liquidity risks into a concise trading plan with entry price, target exit, and invalidation criteria.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$57.9k Vol|

19 hrs 36 mins

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 19? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

15°C

YesNo

2.1¢

97.9¢

22¢

78¢

+19.9¢

0¢

18°C

YesNo

30.5¢

69.5¢

12¢

88¢

0¢

+18.5¢

17°C

YesNo

33.5¢

66.5¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+8.5¢

16°C

YesNo

21.5¢

78.5¢

28¢

72¢

+6.5¢

0¢

19°C

YesNo

10.5¢

89.5¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+5.5¢

14°C

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

5¢

95¢

+5¢

0¢

20°C

YesNo

3.35¢

96.65¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+2.3¢

21°C or higher

YesNo

1.9¢

98.1¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.9¢

13°C

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

2¢

98¢

+1.9¢

0¢

12°C

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

11°C or below

YesNo

0.05¢

99.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.17 17:33 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Although some international models (e.g., AccuWeather) suggest temperatures could reach 17-18°C on March 19, the latest forecast from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (issued 11:00 Mar 17) maintains a prediction of 15°C with occasional showers. Overcast and rainy conditions typically suppress daytime heating. The market is currently driven by aggressive warm-sector model runs, pushing 17°C to 34c, while severely undervaluing the JMA-backed 15°C (currently only 9.5c) and the adjacent 16°C (18.5c). Given JMA's local authority and the precipitation probability, fair value should skew towards the 15-16°C range; 17°C is plausible but currently overpriced.

Exotics

This is a typical weather derivative market. While not as common as political elections, predicting weather for major global cities (NYC, London, Tokyo) is an established niche within prediction markets, making it neither entirely mainstream nor completely absurd.

Movers

From March 16, 2026, to March 17, 2026, the price of 17°C surged from ~18c to 34c, while 15°C crashed from 35.5c to 9.5c. The reason is a reversal in short-term weather model outputs. While models on March 16 favored a cooler, rainy day (benefiting 15-16°C), updates on March 17 suggest stronger warm air advection (southerly winds) ahead of the rain, pushing expected highs up and causing capital to rotate back into the 17-18°C range.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists: The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) officially forecasts a high of 15°C (cloudy with showers), whereas Polymarket traders have priced 17°C as the clear favorite (34%), followed by 18°C. The market appears to be favoring warmer US-based model data (likely used by Wunderground/AccuWeather) while ignoring the more conservative, precipitation-heavy forecast from the local authority.

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 19? - AI Odds Analysis

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