[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book depth and the extremely low volume ($50), assess the impact of the bid-ask spread on entry costs, and update the fair value assessment based on the latest weather forecasts.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the Order Book depth and the extremely low volume ($50), assess the impact of the bid-ask spread on entry costs, and update the fair value assessment based on the latest weather forecasts.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the latest maximum temperature forecasts for Tokyo Haneda Airport on March 20, 2026, from JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency), AccuWeather, and Weather.com to identify the consensus temperature range.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the latest maximum temperature forecasts for Tokyo Haneda Airport on March 20, 2026, from JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency), AccuWeather, and Weather.com to identify the consensus temperature range.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How does Wunderground's History data handle decimals? Search to confirm whether it rounds to the nearest integer or truncates (e.g., does 16.9°C display as 16°C or 17°C?), as this is critical for borderline temperature resolutions.

AI-powered analysis for: How does Wunderground's History data handle decimals? Search to confirm whether it rounds to the nearest integer or truncates (e.g., does 16.9°C display as 16°C or 17°C?), as this is critical for borderline temperature resolutions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for historical daily high temperature data for Tokyo Haneda Airport on March 20th over the past 5 years (2021-2025) to calculate the frequency of temperatures falling within the 15°C-19°C range.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for historical daily high temperature data for Tokyo Haneda Airport on March 20th over the past 5 years (2021-2025) to calculate the frequency of temperatures falling within the 15°C-19°C range.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Check the data update status for 'Tokyo Haneda Airport Station (RJTT)' on Wunderground to confirm if the station has been uploading data normally in the last 24 hours and if there is a risk of outages.

AI-powered analysis for: Check the data update status for 'Tokyo Haneda Airport Station (RJTT)' on Wunderground to confirm if the station has been uploading data normally in the last 24 hours and if there is a risk of outages.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the latest model run results from GFS and ECMWF for Tokyo weather to analyze if there is a significant divergence between these two major authoritative models.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the latest model run results from GFS and ECMWF for Tokyo weather to analyze if there is a significant divergence between these two major authoritative models.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the current volume is only $50, qualitatively assess the slippage risk for a $50-$100 capital entry. Will it be difficult to exit without losing a significant premium?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the current volume is only $50, qualitatively assess the slippage risk for a $50-$100 capital entry. Will it be difficult to exit without losing a significant premium?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the schedule of weather forecast updates (typically 00Z and 12Z daily), predict the key time points within the next 48 hours that could cause significant volatility in the odds.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the schedule of weather forecast updates (typically 00Z and 12Z daily), predict the key time points within the next 48 hours that could cause significant volatility in the odds.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Analyze the specific impact of the 'Urban Heat Island' effect on Haneda Airport (RJTT). Does this station's recorded temperature typically trend higher or lower than the general Tokyo forecast?

AI-powered analysis for: Analyze the specific impact of the 'Urban Heat Island' effect on Haneda Airport (RJTT). Does this station's recorded temperature typically trend higher or lower than the general Tokyo forecast?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

If there is a data source conflict between Wunderground and JMA (Japan's official data), how has the Polymarket community historically handled similar disputes regarding 'weather data source discrepancies'?

AI-powered analysis for: If there is a data source conflict between Wunderground and JMA (Japan's official data), how has the Polymarket community historically handled similar disputes regarding 'weather data source discrepancies'?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy for this low-liquidity market: Does placing extremely low bids on outcomes outside the most likely temperature range (e.g., 10°C or 20°C+) have a positive expected value?

AI-powered analysis for: Formulate a 'Stink Bid' strategy for this low-liquidity market: Does placing extremely low bids on outcomes outside the most likely temperature range (e.g., 10°C or 20°C+) have a positive expected value?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the current precipitation probability from major weather models, analyze the likelihood of rain causing temperatures to be lower than expected (a bearish argument).

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the current precipitation probability from major weather models, analyze the likelihood of rain causing temperatures to be lower than expected (a bearish argument).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Calculate the recommended position size using the 'Kelly Criterion', assuming your confidence in a specific temperature range is based on the consensus of 3 independent weather models.

AI-powered analysis for: Calculate the recommended position size using the 'Kelly Criterion', assuming your confidence in a specific temperature range is based on the consensus of 3 independent weather models.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Set a Stop-Loss Red Line: If the next-day forecast from JMA or GFS shifts the maximum temperature by more than 2°C, should you liquidate positions immediately?

AI-powered analysis for: Set a Stop-Loss Red Line: If the next-day forecast from JMA or GFS shifts the maximum temperature by more than 2°C, should you liquidate positions immediately?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for Japanese weather enthusiasts or professional meteorologists on Twitter (e.g., @JMA_kishou) to check their specific analysis of frontal movements or sudden weather changes for March 20.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for Japanese weather enthusiasts or professional meteorologists on Twitter (e.g., @JMA_kishou) to check their specific analysis of frontal movements or sudden weather changes for March 20.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the current Best Bid and Best Ask, calculate the actual potential ROI if buying now and holding until resolution, after deducting the opportunity cost of capital lock-up.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the current Best Bid and Best Ask, calculate the actual potential ROI if buying now and holding until resolution, after deducting the opportunity cost of capital lock-up.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Compare similar 'Tokyo Weather' contracts on Kalshi or other prediction markets (if available) to see if there are opportunities for cross-platform arbitrage or odds discrepancies.

AI-powered analysis for: Compare similar 'Tokyo Weather' contracts on Kalshi or other prediction markets (if available) to see if there are opportunities for cross-platform arbitrage or odds discrepancies.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Analyze Time Decay (Theta): As March 20 approaches and forecast accuracy increases exponentially, which side (Favorite vs. Underdog options) benefits most from the passage of time?

AI-powered analysis for: Analyze Time Decay (Theta): As March 20 approaches and forecast accuracy increases exponentially, which side (Favorite vs. Underdog options) benefits most from the passage of time?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the momentum of current weather charts, has the temperature in Tokyo been warming up or cooling down due to cold air over the past 3 days? Use this to determine if you should chase the higher temperature options.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the momentum of current weather charts, has the temperature in Tokyo been warming up or cooling down due to cold air over the past 3 days? Use this to determine if you should chase the higher temperature options.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Generate a One-Page Trading Plan: Define target entry zones based on Wunderground forecasts, and set a hedging strategy for scenarios where the forecast temperature sits exactly on an integer borderline (e.g., 16.5°C).

AI-powered analysis for: Generate a One-Page Trading Plan: Define target entry zones based on Wunderground forecasts, and set a hedging strategy for scenarios where the forecast temperature sits exactly on an integer borderline (e.g., 16.5°C).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Weather|$6,578 Vol|

1 days 18 hrs

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 20? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

15°C

YesNo

4.5¢

95.5¢

28¢

72¢

+23.5¢

0¢

12°C

YesNo

31¢

69¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+23¢

13°C

YesNo

38¢

62¢

22¢

78¢

0¢

+16¢

14°C

YesNo

13¢

87¢

25¢

75¢

+12¢

0¢

16°C

YesNo

3.6¢

96.4¢

10¢

90¢

+6.4¢

0¢

11°C

YesNo

5.5¢

94.5¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+3.5¢

10°C or below

YesNo

2.5¢

97.5¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.5¢

17°C

YesNo

2.55¢

97.45¢

3¢

97¢

+0.5¢

0¢

19°C

YesNo

0.45¢

99.55¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.4¢

20°C or higher

YesNo

0.3¢

99.7¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.3¢

18°C

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.17 14:24 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The authoritative Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) explicitly forecasts a high of 15°C for Tokyo on March 20 in their latest March 17 update. While some models like AccuWeather lean slightly cooler (~13.3°C/56°F), the thermal inertia of Tokyo Bay (sea temp ~14°C) makes a drop to 12°C unlikely for the coastal Haneda station (RJTT). The prediction market is currently severely undervaluing the JMA consensus (trading 15°C at only ~12c) while overpricing the colder 12-13°C range. Fair value heavily overweights 14-15°C to correct this pessimistic bias.

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Exotics

This is a typical weather derivative market. While forecasting weather isn't inherently bizarre, betting on a specific high-temperature range for a specific location and date is a niche category compared to elections or sports.

Movers

March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of the 11°C option crashed from 36c to 12.5c, as early extreme cold model outliers were corrected and authoritative forecasts (JMA) stabilized around 15°C, making such a low maximum highly improbable. March 16, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the 11°C option spiked from 16.5c to 36c, likely due to a rogue weather model run showing a cold snap or market manipulation, triggering a brief panic buy.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. The Market Consensus is heavily concentrated on a colder outcome of 12°C (25.5c) and 13°C (28c), whereas the Mainstream Authority (JMA) explicitly forecasts 15°C. The market appears to be overreacting to the "Cloudy/Showers" description while ignoring the specific numeric temperature guidance. This creates excellent odds for longing 14°C/15°C or shorting 12°C.

Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 20? - AI Odds Analysis

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