All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
12°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
18°C or higher
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
11°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
8°C or below
YesNo
AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As the forecast window enters the 72-hour high-confidence range, meteorological models (such as JMA and AccuWeather) have significantly tightened. The market has undergone drastic repricing in the last 24 hours, with capital fleeing the extreme tails (12°C and 18°C+) and consolidating around the median (15°C-17°C). Specifically, the implied probability of 16°C tripled (from 10c to 30c), strongly suggesting that the latest weather data has locked onto this figure. Given the potential for clearing skies on March 21, solar heating supports the higher end of the average. We view 16°C as the favorite, and its current market price (~29.5c) is slightly undervalued compared to its meteorological probability (estimated ~35%).
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Movers
2026-03-17 to 2026-03-18, the price of '18°C or higher' crashed from 33c to 7c, as updated meteorological models ruled out an unseasonably warm scenario, causing a flight of capital from the high-temperature bet.
2026-03-17 to 2026-03-18, the price of '16°C' surged from 10c to 30c, as forecast precision improved and this option emerged as the new consensus landing point.
2026-03-17 to 2026-03-18, the price of '12°C' dropped from 21.5c to 9.7c, as previous concerns about a cold front were invalidated by new data.
