All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
18°C
YesNo
16°C
YesNo
15°C
YesNo
20°C
YesNo
17°C
YesNo
14°C
YesNo
13°C
YesNo
21°C or higher
YesNo
19°C
YesNo
11°C or below
YesNo
12°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
7 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the latest forecasts from AccuWeather, Google Weather (The Weather Company), and the Met Office, the high temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT) on March 22 is expected to be between 17°C and 18°C (Forecasts: 63°F/17°C - 64°F/18°C). Major meteorological models are highly aligned, and with only 4 days remaining, the probability of extreme heat (21°C+) or cold is negligible. The market's current pricing for '21°C or higher' deviates significantly from the forecast.
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Exotics
For the general public, the specific temperature of a specific city on a specific date is not a topic naturally speculated upon, making it a niche weather prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on it as a specific outcome has a certain 'novelty' factor.
Divergence
Extreme divergence exists. The market assigns a 25% probability (25c price) to '21°C or higher', making it the most expensive single option. However, consensus forecasts from AccuWeather, Met Office, and others predict 17°C-18°C. This divergence likely stems from speculative betting on heat, confusion between Fahrenheit and Celsius, or pricing distortions due to illiquidity.
