Between May 5 and May 6, 2026, the price of the 30°C option surged from 10.5c to 34.5c, and the 32°C option rose from 15.5c to 28c, as weather forecasting models adjusted towards these slightly higher temperature ranges closer to the resolution date. Between May 5 and May 6, 2026, the price of the 29°C option plummeted from 21.5c to 2.4c, and the 33°C option dropped from 16.5c to 5c, because updated meteorological data largely ruled out these outlier temperature ranges.

Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific Chinese city on a random day is a very niche and novelty topic. Aside from weather enthusiasts or locals, ordinary people rarely think about this.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of the 25°C option surged from 27.5c to 96.75c. The reason is that as the settlement date approached, market certainty regarding the high temperature reaching 25°C increased significantly, leading to a rapid concentration of funds on this option. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of the 26°C or higher option plummeted from 13.65c to 2.45c, as updated weather models ruled out the possibility of higher temperatures.

There is a significant divergence. Current mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather, The Weather Network) predict that due to rain, Wuhan's highest temperature on May 7 will be around 21°C to 22°C. However, the prediction market prices the 25°C option at 94.85c, implying an overwhelmingly high probability of hitting 25°C. This discrepancy could stem from micro-climate differences at the specific Wunderground station (Tianhe International Airport) or market participants possessing data not yet reflected in general public forecasts.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 92-93°F surged from 6.5c to 33c, and 90-91°F surged from 18.5c to 47.5c. Conversely, 88-89°F plummeted from 40.5c to 13.5c, and 86-87°F dropped from 20c to 2.2c. The reason is that updated meteorological forecasts confirmed the early arrival of a 'heat dome', revising Thursday's expected high from the upper 80s to the low 90s.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026: The price of the 64-65°F option climbed steadily from 20.5c to 36.5c, as short-term weather models became more confident in a cooler trend, pinning the high temperature expectations squarely around 64-65°F. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026: The price of the 68-69°F option dropped from a high of 29c down to 13c, because as the resolution date nears, forecasts indicate it is highly unlikely for the temperature to exceed 68°F, leading the market to discount this warmer scenario.

May 3, 2026 - May 5, 2026, the price of the '<39.0' option surged from 45c to 77c (then settling at 65.5c), while '39.0–39.4' fell from 36c to 21.5c, and '39.5-39.9' plummeted from 18.5c to 1.5c. This is because, nearing resolution, new polling data showed a further decline in approval ratings, completely extinguishing hopes of a rebound above 39.5% and pushing expectations further below 39%. May 2, 2026 - May 4, 2026, the price of the '<39.0' option surged from 33c to 55c, while '39.0–39.4' dropped from 40.5c to 31c, because as the resolution date approaches, more polling data solidified the reality of extremely low approval ratings, breaking previous expectations of a floor at 39%. May 2, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the '<39.0' option plummeted from 63.5c to 33c, while the '39.0–39.4' option surged from 25c to 39.5c. This is likely due to new polling data indicating that although Trump's approval is low, the momentum to break below the 39% mark is insufficient, showing signs of short-term stabilization at the bottom. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the '40.0–40.4' option crashed from 26c to 6.5c, and the '39.5–39.9' option also slid. This is because macro negative factors continue to unfold, completely extinguishing market expectations of a short-term recovery above 40%.