Highest temperature in Toronto on April 11?
Weather|$14.9k Vol|
time1 days 10 hrs

Highest temperature in Toronto on April 11? - AI Found +16.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.08 18:18
Top Undervalued
+16.5¢
11°C(No)
+15.5¢
10°C(No)
+8.5¢
12°C(No)

Highest temperature in Toronto on April 11? AI analysis: • +16.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current prediction market data, price fluctuations across options reflect adjusted market e...
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Highest temperature in London on April 11?
Weather|$35.3k Vol|
time1 days 10 hrs

Highest temperature in London on April 11?

Top Undervalued
+2.5¢
14°C(No)
+1.5¢
13°C or below(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As April 11 approaches, weather forecasting models have converged, indicating a significant cool dow...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of '13°C or below' surged from 21.5c to 63.5c, while options for higher temperatures like 15°C, 16°C, and 20°C saw steep declines (e.g., 20°C dropped from 14.5c to 0.35c). This was driven by updated weather forecasts predicting much colder conditions in London for that specific date.
AI Analysis
How are the resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for the London City Airport temperature on April 11 determined based on Wunderground data?
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Trump|$238.1k Vol|
time4 days 22 hrs

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?

Top Undervalued
+5¢
(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
6¢
Arbitrage
388%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' at 94 cents. Plan Description: This is a typical low-risk opportunity (Soft Arb). It is almost impossible for Trump to make a state...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 6 days remaining until the April 15 expiration, the probability of Trump publicly and...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Rule Risk
The rules explicitly exclude 'polite diplomatic language' and require a clear 'positive evaluation' (e.g., praise, respect). This subjective distinction could easily lead to resolution disputes if Trump makes ambiguous or merely courteous remarks.
Exotics
This topic is highly absurd and extremely niche. Given Trump's typical political rhetoric, almost no one would forecast whether he would praise Allah before seeing this market. It is a pure novelty and meme market.
Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 21.5c to 5.0c, and subsequently fluctuated between 6c and 11.5c. The reason is that as the expiration date rapidly approaches, market expectations for this highly unlikely event cooled down, with speculative profit-taking and repricing driving the sharp drop.
AI Analysis
Explain in the simplest terms: what exact phrasing (e.g., 'Praise be to Allah' or 'Allah is great') must Trump use to satisfy the resolution criteria, and why wouldn't standard diplomatic language count?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 11?
Weather|$40.0k Vol|
time1 days 10 hrs

Highest temperature in Seoul on April 11?

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
13°C(No)
+7.5¢
17°C or higher(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Latest weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature at Incheon Airport on April 11 is expect...
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Rule Risk
The title specifically mentions 'Seoul', but the resolution rules explicitly state that data from the Incheon International Airport station (RKSI) will be used. Incheon is a coastal city and often has a different temperature profile compared to inland Seoul. This constitutes a significant trap for traders relying solely on the title.
Exotics
While weather derivatives are common in professional finance and agriculture, betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific location on a single day is a novelty, niche, and somewhat recreational topic in retail prediction markets.
Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 7, 2026, the price of '17°C or higher' plunged from 38c to 12c, as updated meteorological forecasts adjusted expectations, placing the peak daytime temperature more firmly in the 15-16°C range and significantly reducing the likelihood of extreme high temperatures.
AI Analysis
Verify the daily update schedule and finalization process of Wunderground's historical data for Incheon Airport (RKSI) to confirm exactly when the maximum temperature for April 11 will be definitively resolved without revision risk.
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 11?
Weather|$13.9k Vol|
time1 days 10 hrs

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 11?

Top Undervalued
+10¢
21°C(No)
+8.5¢
22°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts and historical seasonal data indicate that the high temperature for Buenos ...
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Exotics
Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a niche prediction market. While weather is a common daily topic, trading on exact temperature bounds holds some novelty and primarily attracts data model enthusiasts, distinct from mainstream political or sports markets.
Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 26°C option plummeted from 21.5c to 6c, as weather models converged closer to the date, ruling out the likelihood of unusually high temperatures. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 21°C option dropped from 19c to 4.5c before rebounding to 14c, driven by short-term forecast fluctuations and internal market liquidity adjustments.
AI Analysis
How exactly is the highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 11 determined for this market, and how are decimal temperatures from Wunderground handled given the whole-degree precision rule for resolution?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 11?
Weather|$33.5k Vol|
time1 days 10 hrs

Highest temperature in Paris on April 11?

Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
18°C or below(No)
+5.7¢
19°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As we get closer to April 11, meteorological forecasts become highly accurate. Latest models indicat...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Exotics
Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is somewhat niche. While daily weather forecasts are common, using them as a quantified prediction market target adds a level of novelty.
Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of '18°C or below' surged from 37.5c to 74.5c, while '19°C' and '20°C' dropped significantly from 33.5c and 20.5c respectively. This was driven by short-term weather model updates confirming a cooler air mass over the Paris region.
AI Analysis
Based on historical weather data from the past decade, what is the frequency of the maximum temperature at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport falling into each option's range (e.g., 18°C or below, 22°C, 28°C or higher) on April 11?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
11°C
YesNo
30.5¢
69.5¢
14¢
86¢
0¢
+16.5¢
10°C
YesNo
24.5¢
75.5¢
9¢
91¢
0¢
+15.5¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
Between April 7 and April 8, 2026, the '14°C' option dropped sharply from 18.5c to 4.5c (later rebounding to 13.5c), as updated short-term weather models reduced the probability of unseasonable warmth. During the same period, the '8°C' option fell from 24.5c to 6.5c (later rebounding to 13.5c), indicating market divergence and rapid adjustments between cooler and warmer forecasts. The '7°C' option also dropped from 18c to 3.7c, reflecting weakened expectations for a colder outcome.

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