April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of 29°C surged from 18.5c to 40.5c as market predictions consolidated around this range closer to the date. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of 30°C plummeted from 31c to 19c, and 31°C dropped from 23c to 5.5c, because updated forecasts showed an increased chance of rain, reducing expectations for extreme high temperatures.

The market currently prices 29°C as the most likely outcome (40.5%), while mainstream meteorological services (like Google Weather and AccuWeather) forecast a high of around 27°C. This divergence could be due to localized microclimate effects at the airport station or a lagged market response to the cooling effect of forecasted rain.

Between April 16 and April 17, 2026, the Yes price for the 24°C option plummeted from 28.5c to 10.5c, 21°C crashed from 14c to 0.25c, 22°C fell from 16.5c to 0.65c, and 29°C or higher dropped from 14.5c to 3.4c. This is primarily because as the target date approaches, weather forecast models have consolidated their projections around the 25°C-27°C range, significantly crushing the probabilities of outlier temperatures.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of the 34°C option plummeted from 50c to around 11c, while the 32°C option climbed from 20c to 35c, and the 33°C option rose from 20c to 33c. The reason is that as the date approaches, weather forecast models have become more precise for the maximum temperature on the 18th, ruling out the likelihood of an extreme 34°C high and converging expectations toward the typical 32-33°C range.

Betting on the specific daily high temperature of a particular city is a typical niche weather market in prediction platforms. While not as mainstream as elections, it is not an extremely bizarre or unheard-of concept.

April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 86-87°F surged from 11.5c to a peak of 39.5c before settling at 29c, driven by earlier weather model updates leaning towards a cooler outcome. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 84-85°F spiked from 7.45c to 28.85c and then dropped to 15.6c. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of 90-91°F fell from a high of 28.5c to 12.5c, diverging from the latest Wunderground forecast of 91°F.

Significant divergence exists. The latest Wunderground forecast for April 17 explicitly mentions 'Near record high temperatures. High 91F', yet the market prices the 90-91°F option at only 12.5c, heavily favoring 88-89°F and 86-87°F instead. This is likely due to delayed market reaction or traders using alternative weather forecast sources without strictly adhering to the Wunderground-specific resolution criteria.

This is a relatively niche market. While checking the weather forecast is an everyday activity, predicting the exact highest temperature at a specific airport on a specific day is not something the general public typically thinks about, making it a classic weather derivative betting market.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the 21°C option surged from 34.5c to 47.5c, while the 22°C option dropped from 25.5c to 12.5c, as the latest day-of meteorological forecasts further converged the expected peak temperature toward 21°C. April 16, 2026, the Yes price for the 22°C option experienced significant volatility, surging from a low of 17.5c to 34c before pulling back to 28.5c, due to high-frequency weather forecasts repeatedly tweaking the expected peak between 21°C and 22°C shortly before resolution. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the Yes price for the 20°C option surged from 15c to a peak of 34.5c (before settling down to 15.5c), while the 18°C option plummeted from 13.5c down to 0.45c. This was driven by the approaching resolution date and updated, high-precision short-term weather forecasts that completely ruled out lower temperatures, securely locking the expected high in the range above 20°C.