April 16, 2026 - April 16, 2026, the price of '68°F or higher' surged from 33.5c to 65c, while '64-65°F' plummeted from 27c to 8c. This was due to updated meteorological models drastically raising the expected high temperatures for the San Francisco area on April 18, causing capital to swiftly rotate into higher temperature brackets. April 13, 2026 - April 15, 2026, option prices remained relatively stable without any wild swings exceeding 10 cents. Market expectations for the temperature were well anchored.

Predicting the exact temperature on a specific date is somewhat niche compared to mainstream political or sports events, making it a bit novel, but it remains a relatively common novelty long-tail market in prediction platforms.

April 17, 2026 - April 18, 2026: The price of the 29°C option surged further from 37.5c to 49.5c, as the latest Observatory forecast on the settlement day maintained the expected high of 29°C, prompting the market to concentrate confidence in this outcome. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The prices for both 28°C and 29°C surged from 23.5c to around 38.5c. This reflects the latest forecast explicitly pinpointing a maximum temperature around 29°C, leading capital to concentrate on the most likely outcome ranges. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of the 30°C option plummeted from 25c to 7c. This was driven by the nearing resolution date and the Observatory's forecast peaking at 29°C, lowering expectations for a 30°C high.

2026-04-16 06:43 - 2026-04-16 09:58, the price of '30°C or higher' plummeted from 50.5c to 4.5c, as updated weather forecasts ruled out the possibility of extreme heatwaves. 2026-04-16 09:58 - 2026-04-17 14:08, the price of '28°C' dropped from 25c to 14.5c because closer-to-date forecasts solidified the expected peak temperature within the 25-27°C range.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of 74-75°F surged from 7c to a peak of 31.5c (before settling at 23c), while 72-73°F fell from 19.5c to 11c. This was driven by weather model fine-tuning regarding the exact timing and speed of the incoming cold front, pinning the expected midnight temperature around the 74-77°F range.

April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of 29°C surged from 18.5c to 40.5c as market predictions consolidated around this range closer to the date. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of 30°C plummeted from 31c to 19c, and 31°C dropped from 23c to 5.5c, because updated forecasts showed an increased chance of rain, reducing expectations for extreme high temperatures.

The market currently prices 29°C as the most likely outcome (40.5%), while mainstream meteorological services (like Google Weather and AccuWeather) forecast a high of around 27°C. This divergence could be due to localized microclimate effects at the airport station or a lagged market response to the cooling effect of forecasted rain.