All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
7°C
YesNo
5°C
YesNo
4°C
YesNo
8°C or higher
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
3°C
YesNo
1°C
YesNo
0°C
YesNo
-1°C
YesNo
-2°C or below
YesNo
2°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 20:23 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Synthesizing data from major meteorological sources, Environment Canada forecasts a high of 4°C, The Weather Network predicts 5°C, and the IBM/Weather.com model (which aligns with the resolution source Wunderground) forecasts 6°C. Thus, fair value is tightly clustered in the 4-6°C range. While Environment Canada is authoritative (pointing to 4°C), the resolution source bias favors 5°C and 6°C. The outlier scenario of a late-night spike to 10°C has been invalidated by subsequent forecasts (Friday remains 4-5°C), rendering high-temp options negligible.
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Movers
March 16-17, 2026, '8°C or higher' crashed from 29.5c to 4c, and '7°C' dropped from 27.5c to 14.5c. This was likely due to the market initially overreacting to outlier forecasts suggesting a late-night warm front (up to 10°C), which was subsequently invalidated as consensus forecasts solidified around a 4-6°C high.
March 16, 2026, '4°C' surged from 11.5c to 25c, as the market priced in the authoritative Environment Canada forecast (4°C) as a primary baseline.
