All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
5°C
YesNo
4°C
YesNo
9°C
YesNo
1°C or below
YesNo
6°C
YesNo
11°C or higher
YesNo
10°C
YesNo
8°C
YesNo
7°C
YesNo
2°C
YesNo
3°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
2 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
According to the latest meteorological data, Environment Canada forecasts a high of 4°C for Toronto Pearson on March 20, accompanied by a 60% chance of rain showers or flurries. The Weather Network and CP24 both forecast a high of 5°C. Overcast conditions and precipitation typically suppress diurnal heating, making temperatures above 6°C or below 2°C unlikely. While AccuWeather's specific forecast for Pearson is an outlier at 45°F (7.2°C), the strong consensus among authoritative sources (EC, TWN) points firmly to 4-5°C. These two options should command ~65% of the probability mass, yet they are currently priced at only ~40%, indicating significant undervaluation.
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Movers
March 18, 2026, the price of the 3°C option plummeted from 22c to 11c, as weather models corrected earlier colder projections and confirmed a warming trend towards the 4-5°C range.
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of the 7°C option continued to drop from 20.5c to 6.5c, as AccuWeather's warmer forecast (7°C) was increasingly viewed as an outlier against Environment Canada's credible 4°C prediction.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing and mainstream weather forecasts. Both Environment Canada and The Weather Network point clearly to 4-5°C, a range that should hold >60% meteorological probability. However, the combined market price for 4°C and 5°C is only 40c. Excessive capital remains inefficiently allocated to lower-probability tails like 3°C (11c), 6°C (14.5c), and 2°C (8c), leaving the consensus outcome deeply undervalued.
