All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
6°C or higher
YesNo
3°C
YesNo
4°C
YesNo
1°C
YesNo
5°C
YesNo
2°C
YesNo
-1°C
YesNo
-3°C
YesNo
-2°C
YesNo
-4°C or below
YesNo
0°C
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While Environment Canada and The Weather Network (TWN) indicate a clear warming trend (forecasting highs between 6°C and 8°C), supporting '6°C or higher' as the most probable outcome, AccuWeather's latest data suggests a high of only 40°F (~4.4°C), introducing significant downside risk. Therefore, while '6°C or higher' remains the favorite, more probability must be assigned to '5°C' and '4°C' as hedges. The existence of an arbitrage opportunity (buying all Yes options < 1.00) also implies pricing inefficiency, and fair values across options should normalize to sum to 100.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Direct Full-Coverage Arbitrage: Buy 'Yes' on all 11 options. Based on the sum of current ask prices (~92.55¢), this combination covers every possible temperature outcome (as options cover all integer temperatures without gaps).
Plan Description:
This is a textbook Risk-free Arbitrage opportunity. The market pricing across temperature brackets is disjointed, resulting in the sum of all 'Yes' asks being significantly below $1 (approx. 92.55 cents). Since the settlement source (Wunderground) uses integer degrees Celsius and the options cover the entire spectrum from '-4°C or below' to '6°C or higher', buying every option guarantees a payout of $1 regardless of the temperature, locking in ~7.45 cents of risk-free profit.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 7¢
|Annualized yield: 910.5%
Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '6°C or higher' surged from 26c to 50c, driven by a consensus among major weather models (Environment Canada and TWN) forecasting a warm spell reaching the 6-8°C range, fundamentally shifting market expectations.
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, the price of '-4°C or below' crashed from 25.5c to 0.4c, and '-3°C' fell from 11.5c to 0.8c, as approaching forecast data effectively ruled out extreme cold, prompting a rapid correction of previous mispricing based on long-term historical averages.
Divergence
Significant inter-model divergence exists. While current market pricing favors the optimistic forecast from The Weather Network (TWN) of 7-8°C, this conflicts with AccuWeather's latest forecast of 40°F (~4°C). The market appears to be weighting the Environment Canada and TWN warming trend heavily while discounting the cooler AccuWeather data, which could cause volatility as the settlement date approaches.
